That question should perhaps be addressed to the Prime Minster, who might find some difficulty answering it because it would cause such ructions on the Back Benches of her own party. I do not think it is a question for me: I would have no problem putting “customs union” in. That is why I am standing here now, suggesting that this legislation should contain that phrase. If we leave the EU—if—on 29 March or at a later date, then the option of staying in a customs union is a compelling one, and it ought to figure in this legislation.
Why? First, because that option preserves, to the greatest extent possible, the frictionless trade—or something pretty close to it—which was originally the Government’s objective, but has not figured a great deal in government statements because it is not consistent with what the Government are now trying to do. There would be no rules of origin procedures, no VAT checks, no tariff or other problems which would arise. Investors in this country found this enormously attractive when they saw us as a gateway to the rest of Europe. I fear they will not see us as terribly attractive when we cease to be a gateway, with these friction-causing factors.
Secondly, I do not think that that a customs union would solve the backstop, because the regulatory issues are extremely important there, but—as other noble Lords have said—it would make a substantial contribution towards resolving that problem even if it does not totally remove it. Thirdly, it would be likely to ensure us access to the EU’s already hugely substantial amount of preferential trade agreements—both free trade agreements and, in the case of Turkey, a customs union—in a way that would probably be much better than anything we could negotiate separately. The EU not only has this huge panoply of free trade agreements and a customs union with Turkey, but is negotiating now with Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina
and Mercosur, and there are reasonably recent agreements with South Korea and Japan. The one with Japan has not yet been brought into force. The one with South Korea has, I think, brought a quadrupling of our exports to that market. We would get all these advantages if we were in a customs union, without having to do anything about it at all.
What is there not to like about joining a customs union? The noble Lord, Lord Patten of Barnes, quite rightly referred to the problems that might arise and the difficulties we would have negotiating new trade agreements with an independent trade policy. Those are very real, as those who have cited the size of these agreements have demonstrated rather clearly. But what do we have to show for all the rhetoric about the brilliant future that lies ahead of us from Dr Fox’s rather considerable travels, taking him this week to Davos, which is not noticeably a place for negotiating trade deals? Still, no doubt it is quite pleasant to be there. This idea that an independent trade policy is an instant answer to all our problems is simply a mirage that will float before our eyes for years ahead as we trudge through these extremely complex negotiations.
Who are the biggest fish in that pool? There is the United States. President Trump has already said that if we go ahead with the Prime Minister’s deal, which of course the House of Commons did not seem terribly inclined to do, he does not think that there would be much to negotiate with us about anyway. Do we really think China will be more interested in negotiating concessions to get access to our market than it would to get access to the much larger European Union market? India has been pointed out. That will put the whole issue of visas and access for people from India to this country on the table in the negotiations. That will drive another great coach and horses through that very odd immigration White Paper, which we will discuss in about half an hour’s time.
I really do not think that the objections to having a customs union stack up very well. The amendment should be given serious consideration and should figure in the Bill when we send it back to the Commons.