My Lords, the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, speaks a commonly held Brexiteer view. I take a very different view—that if we were to follow the course he just recommended, in 10 years’ time the UK would no longer be the premier centre for financial services in Europe, and certainly not for those generated within the EU, which is one of the largest economic and trading blocs in the world, and perhaps the most important as regards feeding financial services.
I understand the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, but I cannot support it because, as I think he would say, it is quite limited. Financial services depend not just on passporting: for the asset managers it is delegation, for the fintechs it is the e-commerce directive, and for the insurance and trading world it is the mutual recognition of contracts. There are so many complex features at so many different levels that create the ecosystem that has enabled London to thrive, essentially on the basis that it has sitting behind it the resource of a 28-country 510 million population who turn to it as their primary financial centre. However, the way in which the Government respond to Lord Carrington will be critical. It is a matter of timing.
The industry, as the Minister well knows, has been in some despair to try to persuade the Government that how they structure the relationship, should Brexit take place, is absolutely critical. The large companies in the industry have been going ahead with contingency planning that, so far, has been in a relatively preliminary phase. They have identified new real estate, taken out leases, and negotiated licences and other authorisations that they need to be able to expand either their field of business or to be able to expand business. However, almost every one of them has said, I think to many noble Lords in this House, that by the end of March—we are now talking about a matter of days—they will have to push the button on the next phase. That is the fitting out and purchasing of the very extensive and expensive equipment that has to go in, and the setting up of the recruitment process to staff out those new operations. From that there is no return. We therefore reach a point of no return for a significant portion of
financial services which will be transferred to continental Europe with, frankly, no possibility of reversal, in a very brief period of time.
The industry has coalesced around the idea of mutual recognition as the one possible route. If we leave the single market—that is key; if we stay in the single market, it is not an issue, although the Government say that we will not—mutual recognition is the only possible route to limit the damage. It is nowhere near equivalent to the access that we have today, but it could perhaps be negotiated so that the damage is to some degree limited. Every major company I have talked to says that it does not understand how this new form of mutual recognition will work. It seems highly problematic. I have said in this House before that when the EU first began to bring together and create aspects of the single market in financial services, it began by using mutual recognition. However, it turned out to be completely inadequate to deal with the complexity of so many different kinds of issues, so much competition, so much size and so much depth.
So mutual recognition is seen not as a successful strategy but as the failed strategy for these arrangements that is now being revived in a new form. Because the industry is listening, it is important that we get from the Government something that provides some meat and bone on how this mutual recognition could function. If we do not hear that today, we will in many ways be accepting that we will not have any kind of significant arrangement around financial services, and the consequences for this country, which is essentially a service economy in which financial services are the most significant part and the largest exporter, will be highly significant. We need to understand today whether we are looking at something that is real and has the prospect of achieving success or whether we are simply tossing around an idea that has PR attractions but, frankly, offers no meaningful route to keeping access to the European market for our financial services industry.
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