My Lords, the logistics industry permeates all our lives. It dominates retailing and allows most sophisticated industries, such as the motor industry, to organise themselves on a multisite basis. When we buy something in most shops, we start a process which means that our purchase will trigger the order for a replacement, stretching back to the manufacturer or supplier. This arrangement has become very much more sophisticated since we joined the EU 44 years ago. Supplies of parts flow through a network as complicated as a spider’s web, throughout the community and beyond. This is what makes your orange appear at breakfast or your new car come off the production line.
We are told in ever shriller tones by the logistics industry and its customers that the survival of that system depends upon frictionless trade: no stops at borders, no need to provide documentation and no tariffs—they are the words of the Freight Transport Association. The industry was lured into a state of complacency by the assurances of Ministers that this “frictionless” trade would continue after March 2019, which is less than a year away. However, that complacency is swiftly turning to panic as it becomes evident that the assurances offered concerning frictionless trade are becoming less likely to be realised. Trade deals, even if these could be negotiated, seem a very distant prospect. Your orange at breakfast has to come from Spain, and the parts to make and deliver your Mini need to arrive at Cowley every 20 minutes or the production line stops. The prospect of empty shelves in the shops, as witnessed recently due to the weather, becomes almost a certainty.
If there is any interruption at ports or similar points of entry and exit, I suggest that people’s anger with those politicians who have sold them a false prospectus will be deep and severe. If people are unable to obtain the supplies of groceries to which they have become accustomed, or workers in factories that cannot get a time-critical supply of spare parts are laid off, there will be trouble. The chance of protests in the streets as these shortages become apparent should be taken far more seriously than the suggestion of a popular uprising if the concept of Brexit is eventually frustrated. The mantra “Europe needs us more than we need them” is perhaps best not put to the test, as there will be those doing business here who decide to seek the certainty of closer union with the EU by moving their operations within its borders. The future of the aircraft construction industry is an example.
The logistics problem is very serious in respect of Ireland, to which the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, has referred. A very large amount of perishable material
has to transit via Great Britain on its way to and from Europe. If any border checks are necessary to secure passage at either Holyhead and Dover—probably both, as things stand—there will be serious implications for that trade, and it will surely lead to the establishment of direct ferry links between the Republic and Europe to avoid using those at Dover or other crossing points. At this moment the Government of the Republic are giving serious consideration to that possibility.
Maybe those in the logistics industries—notably the ports industry, the Freight Transport Association and the Road Haulage Association—have kept quiet until now because they have always trusted and supported the party opposite and have trusted the assurances of David Davis and Liam Fox. That misplaced loyalty is about to be tested, possibly to the point where these businesses suffer permanent damage. The purpose of the amendments is to seek from the Government, at this late stage, the humility to accept that the promises about frictionless trade cannot be delivered and to bring back on Report a plan to keep Britain working and supplied in the present just-in-time way, or they face a defeat in this House on Report. As the Freight Transport Association said, the trailer registration Bill, to which the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, referred, which is coming back to your Lordships’ House in Committee, is not a viable solution.
As the Prime Minister said only last week, we need certainty. I submit to your Lordships that we are as far from that as ever.