My Lords, I do not intend to move Amendment 72, the other amendment in this group.
The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, has set out the case for this Bill in his characteristic urbane manner, but no amount of urbanity or suavity can disguise the fact that the arguments for the Bill are superficial and the evidence thin. He has sought, for example, to persuade us that the other place has spoken loud and clear and that, with a majority of around 300, it would be wrong for this House even to amend it. However, I suspect that that does not reflect the true depth of support in the other Chamber. In any case, it will soon be put to the test. If the support for the Bill is as strong as he claims, there will be no problem in securing the additional time that the Bill needs to consider our amendments. To judge from the glum faces on the Benches opposite
when the first amendment was passed, I do not believe that they believe that there is really that degree of support in the Commons.
The noble Lord made much of the argument that we must give people a choice. I agree with that, but it must be an informed choice. I am not against a referendum—I am against a “pig in a poke” or a “leap in the dark” referendum. Amendment 9, which was passed last week, established the principle that people must be given the information that they need about the results of an exit from the EU, without which they may make a choice that they come to regret. Responding to the noble Lord, Lord Roper, the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, said that it was unnecessary to make special provision for such information and that people could get it through political parties, through referendum campaigns, and through the press and business groups, pretty much as the Scots are getting their information now. That will not suffice, as some information can come only from the Government, which is what Amendment 50A addresses.
As I pointed out at Second Reading, voters need three things to make an informed choice: an understanding of how society and the economy will develop if we remain in the EU with its current framework; an assessment of how that might be modified by a process of renegotiation and reform in the EU; and an assessment of what our relationship with the EU might be—what might be retained or replicated, mimicked, modified or dropped. Only then can the impact assessment called for in Amendment 9 be established. Having set up these scenarios, the pros and cons of each can be compared and the balance of advantage struck in what, in the current jargon, would be called the delta. But the information required by voters cannot simply be left to laissez-faire; much of it can come only from the Government, who would be left with the task of negotiating the divorce settlement.
People will need answers to a host of questions—some general and some affecting their personal lives or their businesses. Let me give the House a practical example. Forty-two years ago, I found myself on the Treasury’s agriculture desk, looking after MAFF spending. I soon had to master the outgoing UK regime of deficiency payments for each sector of agriculture—beef, dairy, and so on. I then had to grapple with the incoming CAP regime—intervention prices, export subsidies and import measures. Then I had to master what was called the fourchette, the transition plan between the two. With a leave vote, we would face that journey in reverse. Farmers will want answers. What will the new regime be for them? Will they still be able to export their beef, and should they expand their dairy herd, or should they get out of farming altogether? Being told that it is too soon to say will not cut much ice, inform any sensible investment decisions or, worse still, satisfy the bank manager.
This problem will be repeated in a hundred different domains. Top of the list will be residence, citizenship and employment. People will ask, “Can I still employ EU nationals? Can I get a job in the EU? What healthcare or welfare benefits can the thousands of British retirees now living in the EU expect?”. Then there is trade and the single market. Many fear that we
will be reduced to what has been called fax diplomacy—receiving notice of changes in regulations on which we have had no influence. In my view, it might not be as extreme as that, as we and the EU have a huge amount of trade together, far more than Norway and Switzerland, and a mutual interest in fostering trade in goods and services. That would all have to be negotiated. But it is likely that we would have a reduced influence. Furthermore, will my intellectual property rights, registered at the European Patent Office, be protected? Will I have to renegotiate and reregister my patents in the UK? Will the interchange of students be encouraged, will professional qualifications be recognised and will accounting standards stay the same? The list goes on.
Let me give an example of the kind of work that needs to be done. The “five tests” assessment of 2003 for membership of the euro was a huge exercise, led by the noble Lord, Lord O’Donnell, in the Treasury, and had many components, but it was crucial in helping the UK to reach what I believe has been vindicated as the right decision. It has also helped us resist the blandishments of some people who are now in this House, who wanted to make a politically inspired, unevidenced decision to go in.
I am struck by the contrast between the debate that we had yesterday, when we spent six hours discussing Scottish secession. A recurring criticism was that the Scottish Government had made an inadequate analysis of what independence might look like, that they are exchanging contracts on a house before completing surveys or agreeing a price. It is ironic that some of the people making that criticism of the Scottish Government should today be proposing a Bill that is equally flawed. A decision is being made against a fixed deadline, based on a plunge into the unknown and on a wish list rather than bankable, negotiated assurances.
This is a Bill for those who have made up their minds, have seen enough and do not want any more evidence. In my view, any Government who propose a referendum have a duty to provide voters with the best information they can on what a decision to leave would involve and what our relationship with the EU would be. Amendment 50A, taken in conjunction with Amendment 9, passed last week, ensures that no order can be made to trigger a referendum until that duty has been discharged. I beg to move.
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