My Lords, all noble Lords who have spoken have laid down a significant challenge to the Minister on this part of the Bill. I do not propose to add a great deal, but there are a few questions that I would like to clarify. First, in his opening remarks, I think the Minister said that one of the problems being addressed was that there were significant levels of incorrect awards of pension credit because various assets and income were not being taken into account if they happened after an AIP was set. Does he mean incorrect? Presumably, he does not mean incorrect if they were in line with the rules. If someone is not required to declare it then they do not affect the award, but maybe I misunderstood that point.
Secondly, there is a question about the additional changes of circumstances. I am struggling little to understand what the department does and does not know about this. The impact assessment states:
“We have limited evidence for the additional number of changes of circumstance that are likely to be reported each year as a result of the change in policy”,
but the impact assessment provides an estimate of £17 million a year as the cost of processing additional changes of circumstances and reviews. What assumptions is that figure based on in terms of the number of changes of circumstances?
Picking up a point made by my noble friend Lord McKenzie, what estimate has the department made of the likely increase in fraud and error as a result of the abolition of AIPs? Will the Minister remind the Committee what sanctions will be imposed on pensioners who fail to report a change in retirement income or capital that is relevant to their award? I would also be interested to hear what kind of support will be given. Will he also take the opportunity to remind the Committee
how pensioners will be informed of this, how they will be reminded and what discretion can be exercised in choosing whether to sanction them, and of course what appeal mechanisms are there. That would be very helpful.
There is then the crucial question of the likely effect on the level of pension credit awards to those who have, or would have had, an AIP. The impact assessment was encouraging at first because it states:
“Analysis suggests that many customers are not currently reporting changes which would lead to an increase in their entitlement so they may actually benefit from the simplification of the policy”.
Can the Minister explain the use of the word “simplification”? At the moment, if I have an AIP and an income only from pension and capital, I do not have to tell the DWP about any changes in income, but in future I will. How is that simpler?
On the question of level, the briefing said that despite the fact that many customers may be better off, most people will not be better off as the Minister and my noble friend Lord McKenzie have pointed out. It is obvious that they could not be if £80 million a year is to be saved. Also, my understanding is that not only will there be twice as many losers as gainers, if I have read this correctly the average gainer will gain £6.70 a week but the average loser will lose £13.10 a week, which is twice as much. Will the Minister clarify whether that is right and if so what average means in this context? Is it a mean or median figure?
On the impact by age band of abolishing AIPs, the briefing from the department says that it is not possible to break down savings by age band, but that the younger cohort of recipients who are more likely to be affected by the change in policy are less likely to have capital above £10,000 or other pension income. Will the Minister help me understand that distinction? Assuming that they are spared, these younger pensioners will go on to be over-75s, who would have been entitled to an indefinite AIP. Is the assumption that that cohort, when they reach 75, will still be less likely to have savings over £10,000 or other pension income and thus less likely to face a change in pension credit entitlement? In other words, is the distinction one of age or cohort?
Just out of interest, did the department make any assessment of the effect and cost of, for example, maintaining indefinite AIPs for pensioners above 80 or 85 or any other age level? There is then the question raised by my noble friend Lady Hollis on equity release. I have no intention of standing between my two noble friends on the question of how they should be treated, being a woman with an ambition to live to at least 75 myself. But this is a serious question, to which the Minister responded at Second Reading simply by saying that,
“equity release may not necessarily result in a reduction in eligibility for means-tested benefits and will depend on overall income and capital”.—[Official Report, 3/12/13; col. 193.]
Of course, that is obviously true; for some people it may, and for some it may not. The briefing on the subject that came from the department had a note attached to it that may have come from the
Department of Health, entitled, Reforms to Care and Support: Financial Product Review. That said, on equity release:
“Some people do use this to fund the cost of domiciliary or home care. No data is collected on the number of people who take out equity release to pay for care but it is currently very limited”.
At the risk of being a pedant, if no data are collected, how do the Government know that the number is very limited? I wonder if they are perhaps relying on the Age Concern survey referenced in the DWP briefing note, Abolition of Assessed Income Periods—Equity Release? I think probably not, however, because it suggests that the sample size was too small to be used for extrapolation. So I am sure that is not the source of it. But they must be able to make an estimate to be able to declare that the number is very limited, so can the Minister tell the Committee how many people the department estimates take out equity release to pay for care?
The importance of this question is to understand its implications. Even if the Minister takes the view that he does not regard this as being anything other than administrative easement, as explained by my noble friend Lord McKenzie, the Committee needs to understand whether there will be consequences for the treatment of income that may be needed to pay for care and, if so, how those costs will otherwise be addressed. I look forward to the Minister’s reply.