My Lords, I am extremely grateful to my noble friend for bringing some sanity to this debate. I begin by saying to the noble Baroness that whenever we talk about high carbon and low carbon we must also consider the costs to the consumer.
We are, through the Bill, ensuring the decarbonisation to which I know the noble Baroness is firmly committed. At the same time, it cannot be at any cost. Time and again I have stood at this Dispatch Box and said that it is really important that the measures we take do not have a profound effect on consumers’ bills. Currently, we are already seeing that there is a movement of will against the green agenda simply because people believe that the green agenda is putting extra on their bills. We are very careful in government to ensure that the measures we are taking decarbonise the energy sector at the same time as ensuring that energy is secure and that consumers do not pay heavily for the cost of our policies.
I know that the noble Baroness is passionate about this. She asked a number of questions and I will try to refer back to them. Yesterday we had a meeting. I have some notes that I hope have been distributed to the Lords’ informal scrutiny committee referring to the analyses that the noble Baroness asked about. If she does not have them, they will be made available. They give a broad outline of the analyses that we are using. But I remind the noble Baroness that it was the Conservative Party in opposition that in 2008 asked for the emissions performance standard. It was this party that was pressing ahead to ensure that we brought in decarbonisation and it was the noble Baroness’s party that opposed every action we took at that time. It is a little difficult for us to take the passion of opportunism that is now being demonstrated.
This is about working together to make sure that we not only see a decarbonised energy sector, but we make sure that consumers are not penalised heavily. The noble Baroness’s amendment seeks low-carbon technologies to be given preferential treatment in capacity
market auctions. We consider that the capacity market is not the right means to deliver that objective. Decarbonisation is best achieved through other provisions that we have put within the Bill, including the introduction of contracts for difference and emissions performance standard as well as other policy interventions such as the carbon price floor and international carbon signals such as the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.
These measures are designed specifically to ensure that the economics of low-carbon generation are transformed in comparison to traditional thermal plant. The cumulative impact of these policies is such that we expect only 3% of our electricity generation to be provided by unabated coal in 2025 and none by 2030. Therefore, it is these policies that will drive the decarbonisation of the electricity sector that I know the noble Baroness wants to see, as do we all.
The capacity market, on the other hand, has been designed to ensure security of electricity supply at least cost to consumers. Again, I know that that is what the noble Baroness wants to see as an outcome. It does this by providing all forms of capacity with the right incentives to be on the system to deliver electricity when needed.
The capacity market is designed to be technology neutral and all types of capacity will be able to bid for capacity contracts, apart from those technologies already receiving support from other mechanisms. This means that no type of technology will be given preference in capacity auctions and all eligible capacity will be compared on the basis of cost.
The philosophy is one of humility and to use the power of markets. Sadly, neither I nor anyone in my department is blessed with perfect foresight. We do not know which technologies will be cheapest, what fossil fuel prices will be in the future, or what myriad other factors will determine the optimum path to decarbonisation. That is why we have designed a framework that aims to capture the power of the markets to achieve things at least cost. Prioritising the lowest-carbon generators in the capacity market would force the market to build capacity and commit capital when extending the life of an existing plant might be a better bet—both economically through lower costs to consumers and environmentally. A few years of a coal plant cleaned up to meet the emissions limits in the IED, but operating at low-load factors, while demand-side action, interconnection and CCS develop and more low-carbon capacity comes on, could be a more competitive outcome than committing capital to new gas plants.
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Furthermore, this risks adding unnecessary further complexity to the operation of the capacity market and will duplicate the other policy measures to which I have already referred. It is important to highlight that all plant within the capacity market, including coal, will need to continue to comply with the relevant environmental legislation. In addition, we intend to establish transitional arrangements within the capacity market to help develop the demand side sector in the period before the mechanism starts to deliver capacity. This will help in the longer term to enable the demand
side industry to compete on more equal terms with generation plant, leading to both lower costs and emissions. I hope that I can reassure the noble Baroness that we are very conscious of the risk. As such, we have employed international experts to help identify those opportunities and have developed a series of mitigations in the design of the capacity market to address her concerns. I and my officials would be happy to work with her and other noble Lords over the summer on the design, as it will be finalised in consultation in the autumn.
In summary, the Government consider that the measures we are putting in place, designed specifically to drive the decarbonisation of the electricity sector, will better deliver the intention behind the noble Baroness’s amendment. The amendment would lead to significant added complexity within the market, which in turn would be likely to lead to significant additional costs to the consumer. I agree that it is important that the market operates effectively and we have measures in place to ensure that market participants do not abuse their powers. I hope that the noble Baroness finds that I am with her in wanting to see a decarbonised energy sector, but her amendment would not achieve that and I hope that she will withdraw it.