It is somewhat opportune to follow the hon. Member for Belfast East (Gavin Robinson), as before I talk about the role of the UK Government and the real budget crisis that we are facing, I have to say that, listening to him, the House would almost get the impression that the DUP was not an actor in the current debacle that we are facing and that it is a passive actor or a commentator on the sidelines. DUP Members talk about frustration, people sitting on their hands and nothing moving forward. I remind him that we are now more than four months on from the Windsor framework being concluded, and still we have no Executive and Assembly restored. Indeed, we are more than 16 months on from the Executive being brought down and still we have no progress being made.
I would be the first to recognise that an Executive would not be a silver bullet for our problems—there will still be a major budget crisis whenever an Executive is restored—but having an Executive is fundamental to providing some type of framework, a strategic approach, democratic accountability and transparency and proper scrutiny of what is happening. That allows us to plan ahead. It allows decisions to be taken on a cross-departmental basis. It allows us to protect areas that are crucial for the medium and long terms. Those are all things that an Executive can and should be doing.
In Northern Ireland, the frustration is not over the pace of what is happening and whatever fix awaits us around the Windsor framework; it is over the absence of an Executive. The business community—every single
business organisation—trade unions, the community and voluntary sector, health professionals and education sector people are all saying that they need an Executive and an Assembly back, and the DUP is sitting in defiance of that strong message from those people at the coalface. Every time they say, “Here’s what the Children’s Law Centre are saying” or, “Here’s what the education sector are saying”, they are selectively quoting because all of them are saying, “Get back round the table and work together for the good of the people of Northern Ireland.”
There is a real danger here. The DUP, in its own terms, is out there to try to save the Union because it believes that the Windsor framework undermines it. That is not my opinion; that is the DUP’s analysis of the situation. In trying to save the Union, in its own terms, it is in danger of killing the Union. It is saying, “We need to restore devolution only when there is a solid foundation in place.” Through its boycott of the Assembly, it is shaking Northern Ireland’s very foundations to their core. It is in real danger of doing real long-term damage not just to its own cause of the Union, but to the social fabric of Northern Ireland—our ability to have a functioning economy, to have a proper functioning health service that delivers for people and to have a proper education system. That is what is at stake at present. I urge the DUP to reflect seriously on its current route.
I turn to the UK Government. It has to be said that there is a certain air of unreality to what we are discussing today and indeed to the Bill. I recognise that it has fallen to the Secretary of State to intervene with both the written ministerial statement and this legislation, but we are not on a viable and sustainable pathway in terms of our public services and economy, budget management or governance. Something has to give and give very soon. The cuts themselves are illogical and counterproductive and they will bring long-term damage. We need to see reform and investment, but what we see is a spiral of cuts and a burning platform.
Northern Ireland is falling behind on a range of indicators. Members regularly highlight problems in the health service across Great Britain, for example, problems with waiting lists, access to GPs and access to dentists. Northern Ireland is struggling on every one of those issues and not just a bit more—it is significantly worse. We are falling behind on educational attainment and productivity. Whenever we look at the context on the island of Ireland, the contrast is ever stark. Life expectancy in the Republic of Ireland is now two years ahead of Northern Ireland; 20 years ago, it was the other way round. Things like that are happening through this decline.
On budget management, we see a major mismatch between what the guidance under the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022 says and the expectations that the Government are placing on civil servants. It is limited and contradictory. The civil service cannot initiate new policy and cannot tackle areas that are statutory responsibilities. That means that non-statutory areas have been disproportionately targeted, with cuts on things such as early intervention and prevention: actions that are vital not just to address opportunities for people but to avoid much steeper costs downstream that will have to be picked up in due course. Those costs may be with us for many years to come thereafter.
The Departments cannot live within the current control expectations placed on them. The Northern Ireland Departments collectively are overspending to the tune of £100 million a month. So one of three things will have to happen over the next few months. We may see the status quo continuing, which will lead to a massive overspend by the end of the financial year, which will be kicked into next year or subsequent years and become an albatross around Northern Ireland’s neck for many years to come.
Alternatively, we may see the Government recognising that this is unsustainable and intervening through a more formal version of direct rule, trying to balance the budget over the remainder of the year. That will mean even deeper cuts because trying to manage cuts over a six-month window is much more difficult than over 12 months—and doing it over 12 months is bad enough. If they go down that route, that will bring major carnage. By far the most benign scenario involves the Government and Northern Ireland parties agreeing on some form of a national package linked to a restored Executive. Of course, that negotiation would be much better done from the place of a functioning Executive, but whether it is before, after or during that reformation process, that discussion has to happen. I dare say that, from the Government’s point of view, the prospect or reality of a restored Executive will be a precondition for anything moving in that regard.
I welcome what the Secretary of State has said about the Alliance party’s proposals. We are talking about a process of stabilisation, which can become a platform for wider transformation. We cannot make Northern Ireland sustainable from that burning platform. So we have to invest to save and we need a genuine, multi-year plan. A certain degree of discipline from all the Northern Ireland parties over many years will be required to ensure that they abide by a programme for Government, if that is to be delivered. I imagine that there will be a degree of conditionality in what the Government will say in that particular regard. My party is certainly up for those discussions over the next few weeks. We welcome what the Secretary of State has said today and look forward to engaging with him over the next few weeks in that respect.
We also have the governance crisis, which I already touched upon. We need the Executive and Assembly back to provide that coherent structure for managing the situation. With a functioning Executive, we will be in a much better position to have those discussions around not just the financial package but the Barnett formula and addressing that squeeze.
I welcome what the Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier), said about the Northern Ireland Audit Office. What she said reflects the importance of respect for the independence of that body. I would add that the same points and logic extend to the Northern Ireland public service ombudsman. I concur with what the Scottish National party spokesperson, the hon. Member for Gordon (Richard Thomson), said about the Government’s response to clarify section 75 duties and exactly how they have been taken forward in relation to the Budget.
Although I have perhaps said a few harsh things, there is a positive future for Northern Ireland if we can get this right. Northern Ireland is a great place, but it
needs a Government to deliver. With a coherent Government, and with parties genuinely committed to working together, we can push ahead with invest to save. We can see what opportunities lie on the island of Ireland for certain economies of scale. On a purely economic and social level, we can do things without entering into the wider political and constitutional debate. We can address the cost of division—the duplication that comes from running parallel services. We can potentially see the reform of the Barnett formula, which will give us a proper needs-based platform from which to proceed. We can invest in prevention and support our community and voluntary sector.
Over the next few weeks, there are important decisions to be made. If people do not step up and if we do not get this sorted, the future of Northern Ireland will be bleak. If we can get it right, the future is hopeful. I want to optimistic about that future.
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