As we head towards our departure from the European Union in just under a year, I believe that our future trading arrangements are more important than ever. As deputy chairman of the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council, I was involved in last week’s Commonwealth business forum, before the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, which was an important event for discussing
trade, especially in the light of Brexit. Last year, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for International Trade hosted the first ever Commonwealth Trade Ministers’ meeting, and last week the Prime Minister and Secretary of State announced £1.5 billion worth of commercial deals.
According to World Economics, the Commonwealth economy is bigger than that of the current eurozone, while intra-Commonwealth trade has grown faster than the global average over the past 10 years. I fundamentally believe that the diversity of the Commonwealth is a strength in itself, with half of the top 20 global emerging cities within the group. There are 2.4 billion people in the Commonwealth, of which more than 60% are under the age of 29. It is worth remembering, in terms of opportunity for British business, that the middle class of India alone is bigger than that of Europe.
Even the European Commission has conceded that 90% of global economic growth in the next 10 to 15 years is expected to be generated outside of Europe. The Commonwealth’s largest members account for a quarter of the G20 and a fifth of all global trade, meaning that millions of jobs are directly affected through trade between these countries. Since the EU referendum, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Department for International Trade have been building links with the rest of the world, which is a positive step towards higher levels of economic growth. That leadership will place the UK in as strong a position as possible when we eventually leave the EU.
So why should we avoid remaining in a customs union with the EU? The answer is very simple and it is borne out by the facts. The Government have set out to ensure that we are a truly global Britain. As we have heard, remaining inside a customs union with the EU would prevent the UK from committing to that agenda and striking lucrative free trade agreements with countries across the world. Recent data from the World Bank show that the EU27’s share of world GDP has fallen from 25% to 18% in the last 10 years alone. I simply cannot understand why some colleagues would prefer to remain within a customs union with a bloc that is declining in its share of global trade.
It is in the EU’s interests not to impose tariffs and barriers to trade, especially as EU members continue to sell more goods to the UK than we do to them. That point is particularly pertinent when stood next to the fact that the proportion of our exports going to the EU27 has fallen from 54% to 43% in the last decade alone, at a time when our trade with the Commonwealth has increased.
Membership of a customs union restricts a country’s right to trade freely with third countries. Free trade agreements are not, I concede, easy to negotiate, as we saw with the comprehensive economic trade agreement between the EU and Canada. Many of us remember the Belgian region of Wallonia almost unilaterally collapsing that painstakingly negotiated free trade agreement. I for one am not prepared to allow future growth in the UK to be hobbled by a regional Government in another EU country. The possibility of being forced to wait for regional Parliaments in 27 other EU countries to ratify a free trade agreement is wholly unacceptable in today’s world.
I would like for a moment, as a former Northern Ireland Minister, to pause and think about Northern Ireland, which was one of the reasons I voted to remain.
I agree with the hon. Member for Vauxhall (Kate Hoey) that we cannot allow the tail to wag the dog, and I very much hope that the Minister for Foreign Affairs in Dublin will in future work collaboratively with both the UK Government and the EU to resolve this. We do not want a hard border, and I am pleased that the Prime Minister has been clear that it would be unacceptable to break up the UK’s common market by having a customs and regulatory border down the Irish sea. We share the same policy goals even if they are achieved by different means.
The British people voted to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016. As someone who campaigned and voted to remain, I was naturally disappointed with the result. However, it is up to us, as representatives, to respect and implement the wishes of the public. I do not believe it is feasible or credible that, when the British people voted to leave the European Union, they did so in the hope that we would remain within the customs union, and I simply do not buy into the idea that people did not know what they were voting for. I find that argument incredibly condescending.
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