The problem with the right hon. Member for Gordon (Alex Salmond) is that he does not want to debate full fiscal autonomy, as he knows that it is a bad policy. Let me emphasise that if the Secretary of State wants to accept the new clause, I would be more than happy to ensure that Members of the House of Lords were not on the commission. Let us be transparent and accountable in this place, rather than nitpicking about parts of the clause. The SNP do not want the scrutiny and that is the key to this argument.
Let us consider some of that scrutiny. The much-quoted IFS analysed full fiscal autonomy in Scotland and said that it would cost £7.6 billion next year and up to £10 billion by 2020. It has made it clear that that is over and above the deficit of the UK at the moment and the spending profile of the current Conservative Government. Let me emphasise again, as this has been misquoted by
the hon. Member for Moray (Angus Robertson) on a number of occasions, that that figure is in addition to the current UK deficit.
The impartial analysis has been dismissed by the Scottish Government, so let us turn to another source of information, Her Majesty’s Treasury, which analysed these figures with results broadly in line with the analysis of the IFS. According to Treasury costings that I obtained through a freedom of information request, full fiscal autonomy would leave Scotland with an additional cash terms deficit of £7.7 billion in 2015-16, rising to £8.4 billion in 2019-20.
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Again, this will no doubt be dismissed, so let us look at the Office for Budget Responsibility oil and gas report published just 10 days ago. It shows that revenue from the North sea is projected to fall from £36.7 billion to just £2 billion in the period 2020-40. [Interruption.] That is dismissed not just by the SNP, but at this moment by the hon. Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart), so let us try the Scottish Government’s own annual accounts in the form of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland report published in March this year. The Scottish Government’s annual accounts show an annual deficit over and above the UK deficit of some £4 billion, and projections are due to worsen with the lower oil price.