We have always been clear that there will be people who will not make the 35 years, particularly those who come into the country later in life, for example, but the link between multiple mini-jobs and not making the 35 years, which we are talking about here, is unclear at best. We simply do not know whether it is a transient phase for people or whether they are in a recurring
pattern. Again, I counsel the House against rushing to policy conclusions in amendments that are not accurately drafted rather than saying, “Let’s get the evidence base together.”
As well as undertaking to update our own figures, we are happy to commit to a literature review of what is known about this end of the labour market, making sure we have access to all the available data. We are also content to convene what we have grandly called an analytical stakeholder forum—that is three words of jargon in one go, so it must be impressive. The point of that is to pick the brains of those who study this end of the labour market, and we will be very pleased to benefit from the insights of the noble Baroness Hollis, with whom I have already had an informal conversation about this matter. I should stress that she would like us to retain Lords amendment 1 to avoid misrepresenting her views. We are very keen to gain her insights and those of economists and others who study this end of the labour market to try to establish what more we might be able to find out through existing data and whether any further work needs to be done.
It seems to us that we need to take a step-by-step approach, rather than rushing to policy conclusions as the amendment would. If we found that there were lots of people in this situation and that something must be done, even the something that must be done might not be the thing proposed in this amendment, and it seems a bit odd to pick one option, which as far as we can see is a sort of opt-in crediting option, when there might be others. For example, one might think that lowering the lower earnings limit might be a better solution. That would reduce the number of people in this position because their combined wages would be more likely to be above that floor. It would not necessarily require an opt-in process, and it would be simpler. That might therefore be a better solution; there might be others. We might relax the rules on voluntary national insurance contributions and the deadlines for payment. One can think of a whole raft of solutions, but if we are not clear about the scale of the problem, the groups affected and the permanence or otherwise of the situation, putting just one such provision in primary legislation—giving ourselves a power we might not use through what is, at that, an ambiguous amendment—does not seem to us to be the way forward.
Let me try to draw these threads together, because we have a lot to get through. We are concerned that the amendment itself is unclear, and I have run through a number of reasons why, such as the reference to the lower earnings “level”, not “limit”, and the reference to “income”, not “earnings”. National insurance liability is based on earnings, so the wording would have to be thus changed. The lower earnings limit figure is currently a weekly figure, whereas the amendment refers to an annual figure. Of course, all these things could normally be tidied up, but we do not have the opportunity to do so because if the House accepts the amendment, that is it: it is the end of the parliamentary process, the Bill becomes law and a deeply flawed amendment is on the statute book.
It is unclear exactly how the amendment is meant to work. As was said earlier, would people have to opt in and get credited, or would there be a duty on Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs to combine these incomes and then levy national insurance, which might be to the
detriment of some? There are a great many issues to be examined, but it is not our view that we should not look at them. We should, and as I said at the outset I absolutely accept the principle that we should have a system of pension rights and national insurance that reflects the current labour market, rather than the one in existence after the second world war. We are making a number of changes in that regard, but as I have said, the amendment as it stands is flawed in a number of respects and ambiguous in others. It rushes to a single solution to a problem whose scale and nature we simply are not year clear about, so we believe that—