That depends on the decisions made on the first and second groups. On the third group, so far there has been relatively little investment, but I know that a number of companies are actively considering making it. They are waiting, partly for the completion of this Bill and regulations arising from it and partly for the detailed work on the capacity market, before making those investment decisions. As I said at the outset, that is why it is important we get the Bill though as quickly as possible, after considering these final points.
The Minister gave several reasons why the Government were against the amendment. The first, which he referred to almost in passing, was on technical and drafting grounds. In that regard, several points have been made by those anxious to ensure that existing investment is not disregarded, but I think that those points could be properly reflected in the regulations that would arise were the amendment to be successful. The second was that the amendment was unnecessary, because existing price control policies, notably the carbon price floor, had the same impact in effectively limiting coal plants to about 40% to 45% load factor. If so, perhaps the Minister, whose antipathy to the carbon price floor has been well-rehearsed—he has been reminded of it a couple of times recently, including this morning, so I will not embarrass him by doing it again—could help to persuade the Chancellor that the unilateral, untargeted measure of a carbon price floor is not needed because the Government could use the approach in the amendment instead.
The third argument was that the amendment would present a risk to security of supply. As the Minister is aware, the amendment would not bite until 2023, and if his boast earlier today in Westminster Hall—on investment decisions about to be announced for the enabling process—are accurate, that would give scope for any gap to be filled. I say that not least because we would continue to have that coal capacity operating in winter and at peak times through the capacity mechanism the Government are introducing.
The fourth argument concerned costs. The Minister neglected the point that the price of electricity was pegged to the price of producing energy from gas. However much coal is in the system, coal generators sell at the gas price, so bringing more coal into the system would not necessarily mean lower energy costs for consumers. It is worth restating that the EPS goes no further than the Government’s own prediction for scaling back coal in the energy mix. It is effectively a back-stop or, with some intelligent thinking, possibly an alternative to what they anticipate will happen in response to the EU emissions trading scheme and carbon price floor combined.
This morning, the Minister spoke in a debate, which I thought was a very good debate, about issues of balance in energy policy. He also spoke earlier this week, to a slightly different audience, about the order in which he saw the elements of the balance: security of supply, affordability, climate change, in that order. He is right to talk about balance, investment and impacts, and the very purpose of the Bill is to ensure we strike that
balance in the most affordable and sensible way in order to secure a diverse and balanced energy supply for the future, while recognising the realities of climate change and the measures we need to take to address it, and to protect us from the vagaries of the volatility inherent in globally traded commodities. He will have seen this week’s figures from the International Energy Association on global energy demand projections over the next few years. Contrary to the impression he gave, the amendment is in line with the Government’s stated aims. It is proportionate and sensible and is certainly worthy of further consideration for inclusion in the Bill.