I agree with my hon. Friend about the need for progress on CCS, which is why I have continued to press the Government on it over the past two years. The Minister might correct me, either at the end of this debate or on the next set of amendments, but my understanding is that there should be some news on the two shortlisted projects, if not towards the end of this year, early next year. I am concerned, however, that with just two demonstration projects, in isolation, without the continuing regime of contracts for difference and other support, CCS will become almost a curiosity, rather than a continuing and integral part of how we reduce and minimise emissions from the peak in capacity we will require for many years to come.
A number of energy companies have made in correspondence much the same point as CoalPro. That was why we proposed an amendment, adopted by the Government, to provide flexibility in the early stages of CCS projects, in the commissioning period, to maximise the chance to achieve what we need to on CCS. That amendment was tabled alongside another one, similar to this amendment, that we discussed in Committee, one part of which the Government accepted.
Let us be clear about what the amendment would do and what it would mean for coal plant. Coal plants operating in 2013 effectively have three choices. The first is to leave the plant as it is, without investment, in which case it would close some time before 2023, depending on how quickly it used the permitted hours of operation to which the Minister referred. The second is to upgrade in order to conform to the industrial emissions directive, as has been done at least once, at Ratcliffe-on-Soar, and as others are considering doing. The third is to upgrade more significantly to extend the lifetime and meet the IED stipulations.
The coal-fired power stations in the first category would be unaffected by the amendment. If they burned through their allowances quickly, operating at 55% load factor, they would still run until 2020, and because of the likely profitability of the capacity market being introduced, I suspect that many would choose to run at slightly lower load levels until 2023. The Government’s emissions performance standards, already in the Bill, will apply to the third category of plant—those that extend their lives through investment. The amendment would impact on the second group and take effect, effectively, from 2023.
The EPS limits on carbon emissions are expressed as the amount of CO2 per kWh, but they limit the amount produced not per hour but per year. A typical power station, therefore, would be limited to a 40% to 45% load factor without lowering its emissions rate. That means running at a low load factor, to manage peaks in demand or in winter, or becoming serious about CCS. Neither choice is the end of coal generation in the UK.
From the Minister’s remarks, it seems that the Government are not persuaded by the amendment for several reasons.