I totally agree. Opinion research tended to bear out the federalists’ claim about the wording of the question. A poll conducted three weeks before the vote found that 28% of voters who had not yet made up their minds believed that a yes vote would simply mean negotiating a better deal within the federal system.
There were many other indications of the importance of the wording. Polls suggested that some 53% of those who supported sovereignty thought that it did not mean separating from the rest of Canada. Even more striking differences were shown: if the polling question was reversed and respondents were asked whether they wished to stay in Canada, 59% said yes; and a poll in 1994 suggested that 71% of sovereigntists wanted to remain part of the federation.
An in/out referendum is a huge issue as far as the UK’s membership of the EU is concerned. We need to make distinctions purely and simply by making it plain at the start that we are a member of the European Union and by asking the public whether they wish to remain as a member.
On the question of the alternative to EU membership, the Democracy Movement testified to Parliament:
“The danger of bias with ballot paper preambles not only relates to what is actually included in them but also to what is left out”.
I feel that any referendum on leaving Europe should allude to what being outside Europe would mean. The Government need to be clear on the choice offered. If it is a choice between being a member of the EU or a member of the European economic area or the European Free Trade Association, like Norway and Switzerland, that choice should be expressed if not in the question in the literature given out with the ballot paper or before the referendum takes place.
Signed in 1992 and operational from 1994, the EEA agreement extends the EU single market and free movement of goods, services, people and capital, together with laws in areas such as employment, consumer protection, environmental policy and competition. It includes Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, but not Switzerland. In practice, that means that the vast majority of the EU regulations that are identified as the most burdensome to business, including the working time directive, would still apply if the UK left the EU but remained a member of the European economic area. The UK would also be bound by future EU law in those areas, but would arguably have less influence over their content. Any question on European membership should therefore state clearly what the alternative to that membership should be.
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Something other than a simple yes or no question was an option—it is not my preferred option—mentioned by the Electoral Commission that might achieve that. Such a question was used in referendums in New Zealand in 1992 and 1993 on electoral reform. We must acknowledge that a sizeable portion of the British public would prefer reform or a renegotiation, rather than simply continuing as we are or leaving the European Union.
The Government’s question—
“Do you think that the United Kingdom should be a member of the European Union?”—
clearly gives the impression that the United Kingdom might not be an EU member at present. As I said in an intervention, when we knock on doors and speak to people about Europe, they are not sure whether we are talking about being in Europe as a continent, as a member of the EU, as a signatory to the European convention on human rights, or as a member of the European single currency. There is therefore a great deal of confusion, but rephrasing the question and providing additional information could make things clearer. The Electoral Commission argues that its research shows that a few people do not know whether the UK is currently a member of the EU and that that presented the risk of misunderstanding. Professor Dunleavy argued in his testimony to Parliament that the question in the Bill
“is highly misleading in two dimensions. First, it implicitly suggests to voters…either that the UK is not already a member…or that our membership is up for renewal in some kind of routine, regular or unprompted way…Either way the question actively contributes to misinforming voters.”
The Electoral Commission tested six versions of a possible referendum question in its report. The first—the question in the Bill—was
“Do you think that the United Kingdom should be a member of the European Union?”
The second question, which is my preference—it is proposed in amendment 35—was:
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”
The third question—
“Should the United Kingdom continue to be a member of the European Union?”—
obviously leads the electorate in a specific direction. The fourth question was
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
That is the either/or option, with the voters choosing between the options of “Remain a member” and “Leave the European Union”. The fifth alternative was:
“The United Kingdom is a member of the European Union. Do you think that the United Kingdom should be a member of the European Union?”
The final question was:
“Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union?”
There were therefore various considerations of how the question could be posed, how each question might lead the electorate, and whether the electorate would understand their options. The commission’s research argued that a simple yes or no question might present
“difficulties with some element of perceived bias”,
but I think that such a question represents the best way forward.
If Scotland votes yes in 2014, will the words “United Kingdom” have to be amended within the question? Will the question refer to the “remainder of the United Kingdom”? I invite the Minister to tell us his preferred wording, should Scotland choose to leave. Would “rump UK” or “remainder of the UK” appear on a ballot paper?
The Government need to take account of the commission’s findings about the range of people’s knowledge and understanding of the EU. Some said that they had no knowledge, while others stated they had a moderate level of knowledge. However, regardless of participants’ knowledge of the EU as a form of political and economic union, the majority stated that their personal understanding of how the EU worked was particularly low. The report considered that many were under-informed about the EU as an institution, as well as about the arguments for and against the UK remaining a member.
The Foreign Affairs Committee report on the future UK relationship with Europe pointed out that Europe’s current institutional architecture means that any UK decision about whether the country should remain in the EU would to a significant extent be a decision about whether it should remain in the European single market. How many people in the UK recognise that fact? Do they realise that voting no to Britain remaining in the EU could seriously affect the economy, their job prospects and their likelihood of remaining in a job in the future? That is why the economic side of the argument is so important. Any referendum question on membership of the European Union should be closely associated with literature which refers to the single market, the likelihood of people still being in a job and of their local firm still trading with Europe, and related matters.
Some participants in the commission’s research expressed concern about the effect of including the word “leave” on the neutrality of the question. Leaving is not as straightforward as some might think. As Herman Van Rompuy pointed out in a speech on 28 February 2013,
“leaving the club altogether, as a few advocate, is legally possible—we have an ‘exit clause’—but it’s not a matter of just walking out. It would be legally and politically a most complicated and unpractical affair. Just think of a divorce after forty years of marriage… Leaving is an act of free will, and perfectly legitimate, but it doesn’t come for free”
and it would not be that easy.
Under article 50 the UK would have to negotiate its withdrawal with the rest of the European Union. The terms of such an agreement would have to be supported
through qualified majority voting in the European Council and would require the support of the European Parliament. If no agreement were reached, the UK’s exit would take effect two years after notice had been issued, unless the Council voted unanimously to extend this period.
Article 50 of the amended treaty on the European Union allows a member state unilaterally to leave the EU in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. It states:
“A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.”