I hope that that scenario is not presented to us, but we would clearly need to ensure that the appropriate consultation took place about any necessary changes to the referendum proposal. We know from the comments from the Minister for Europe, provoked by the hon. Member for Cheltenham, that he is not wedded to the 2017 date and can imagine situations in which the legislation might have to be scrapped or amended. Perhaps the scene that my hon. Friend has just painted is a further example that the Minister for Europe had in mind.
Perhaps those questioned by the commission could sense the more than slight disparity in the views of Government Members and the less than steadfast commitment to a referendum from the Government parties’ Minister for Europe. The Electoral Commission’s research shows that some people felt that “Do you think” sounded more like an opinion poll than a binding vote. It is for others to say whether it was with opinion polls in mind that this whole exercise was initiated by the hon. Member for Stockton South, Lynton Crosby and the Prime Minister.
The Electoral Commission recommended that the opening phrase “Do you think” should be replaced with the word “Should”. The commission has considerable expertise in this area, as I have already set out. Indeed, the commission has a range of other duties on referendums under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, including registering organisations or individuals that want to campaign in a referendum, monitoring spending on referendum campaigning in line with referendum spending limits, and acting as the chief counting officer for the referendum. As it has such duties, the commission is clearly the go-to organisation for all things referendum. The Opposition take its guidance extremely seriously. When the Minister responds to the debate, I would be interested to hear whether he is likewise prepared to stand up to the chairman of the Conservative party and take the considered views of the Electoral Commission on board.
The other key amendment tabled by my hon. Friend the Member for Ilford South deals with another problem identified by the Electoral Commission, concerning making the question clearer and improving understanding. The Electoral Commission’s research found
“low levels of contextual understanding of the European Union, with some participants having no knowledge of the European Union, or the status of UK membership of the EU, at all.”
Importantly, the issue about which we should be concerned is the fact that many participants in the Electoral Commission’s research felt that the question
“was misleading because it does not make clear that the United Kingdom is currently a member of the European Union.”
We know that that is an issue of great concern to the Conservative party. An article in The Mail on Sunday during the summer told us that frantic negotiations occurred behind closed doors as the Prime Minister
bowed to Eurosceptic pressure—again, one might say—and revised the question so that voters would be asked whether the UK should “be” in the EU rather than “remain”, as in the original wording. Apparently, Conservative Eurosceptics, desperate to give their position on the referendum an edge, wanted the question to be less clear—an extraordinary ambition. I have absolutely no idea whether the piece in The Mail on Sunday is accurate, although the journalist who wrote it is not known for being wrong too often. I gently suggest to Government Members that the Mail’s piece underlines the fact that if they want to present this proposition as less of a stunt in future they must take seriously independent advice about how the question should be drafted. The 1922 committee or Lynton Crosby’s office are not the places to be doing such drafting.
While the Prime Minister may be getting bullied again by his noisy and impatient Back Benchers, Labour Members believe that we should listen to the Electoral Commission’s recommendation that the final question on the ballot paper should clearly reflect the UK’s current position within the European Union. If we are to have a referendum, the question should make it clear that the UK is already a member. We see no benefit of shrouding the issue or being purposefully unclear to the electorate. The Electoral Commission identifies a risk of there being ambiguity in the question, with the consequence that it might be misleading to some voters. Labour Members take that considerable concern seriously.
A question to the electorate that would be less ambiguous would be whether the UK should “remain” a member of the EU. The Electoral Commission found that many people felt that the question was asking them whether the United Kingdom should become a member, rather than remain a member, and thought that they were being asked to vote on the UK joining the European Union. Importantly, even those who were aware of the UK’s status as a member of the European Union agreed that the question in the Bill might be misleading. We have already had a referendum on whether the UK should join the European Union. It was proposed not in the manifesto of the Conservative party, nor in that of the Liberal Democrats, but in a Labour manifesto. The referendum was set out in a Labour White Paper and put to the electorate by a Labour Government. By tabling amendment 35, my hon. Friend the Member for Ilford South is trying to avoid causing some voters to think that they are back in the 1970s. He wants to ensure that the question in any referendum that we might have is not misleading in any way.