Although I have much respect for the hon. Gentleman, I invite him to wait and see. He might not even find out today, for all I know; that is not in my hands. If my hon. Friend the Member for Ilford South (Mike Gapes) has the chance to catch Madam Deputy Speaker’s eye, no doubt the hon. Gentleman’s question will be answered.
Consultation under new schedule 2 would reveal that retaining membership of a customs union only would be an inappropriate economic stance for the UK in the modern global economy. The CBI report suggests that, with non-tariff barriers often replacing tariffs as the major obstacle to trade, a customs union would not be sufficient to support Britain’s trading ambitions in the modern global economy, with its complex supply chains, and could limit UK access to EU markets in areas such as services, on which our economy is so based.
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Then we come to direct trade. Again, consultation with the CBI, the Institute of Directors and British Chambers of Commerce under new schedule 2 and amendment 68 would reveal that Britain’s trade with countries outside the EU is all conducted under the auspices of trading agreements negotiated centrally by Brussels, as the EU has exclusive competence to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. No EU member state can have its own separate bilateral trade agreements.
If we left the EU, given its trading arrangements with other EU countries and outside the EU, our trading arrangements would likely be determined by individual bilateral negotiations, and we would do so by default on terms governed by World Trade Organisation agreements. As a member of the WTO in our own right, there is no legal impediment to our negotiating such agreements, but we would be in a much weaker position, and a consultation would reveal that as well.
As I think that the CBI would argue, given that its report makes much the same point, if it were consulted and had a proper chance to consult all its members—something that it could not possibly do during a three-week or so referendum campaign, nor would Parliament be able to assess the outcome of that consultation—it would reveal that the UK would become eligible for tariffs outside the EU that the EU imposes on goods that enter from outside the Union. It might also face higher tariffs levied by other countries with which the EU has preferential trade agreements.
A consultation would also reveal that, as the CBI has argued in its report, going it alone through the WTO would reduce market access through increased tariffs on UK goods and services. Refraining from entering
into any formal relationship with the EU and simply relying on the WTO rules is not a model that would assist Britain in achieving the global trading role to which we aspire and which we have enjoyed historically.