European Union Bill

I thank the noble Baroness. It may be convenient for the House if I speak also to Amendment 23A. It is extraordinary that the Bill should explicitly exclude a referendum on new accessions to the European Union. So far, many contributions to the debate have been concerned with minor changes, and that of course is correct. However, the issue of new countries joining the EU is surely a major matter of constitutional importance, as well as having policy implications. The amendments would require a referendum to be held before the accession of any new country or group of new countries. Noble Lords will recall that in 1973 the United Kingdom joined a European Economic Community—it was then described as a common market—of six member countries. The electorate was told at that time that there would be no essential loss of sovereignty. At the subsequent referendum on whether the country would remain in the community it was told the same thing. The then Government of Harold Wilson assured the people that the veto protected Britain’s sovereignty, and that economic and monetary union had been specifically ruled out. We now know, of course, that it was not specifically ruled out, because it has since been ruled in. The electorate certainly were not warned at that time that the EEC would grow into the European Union, with a threefold increase in membership, but there it is—the original six countries increased to nine and then to 12, and by increments the membership has now reached 27 members. The British electorate have had no say in these increases, and there has been only cursory examination, if I may say so, by Parliament. Yet the implications for Britain—financial, economic, social and political—have been profound. Many of the newly admitted countries have been poor and often backward, causing transfers of finance to be made between richer and poorer countries, to which the United Kingdom has had to make a very large contribution which the taxpayer has to meet. This year, that contribution will amount to £9.3 billion, and it will go on increasing over future years. Then, of course, Britain’s influence in the EU is diluted as the number of member states and the total population grows due to the system of qualified majority voting, as well as social stresses and additional social costs arising from increased immigration. Noble Lords will also recall that during the most recent accessions, the Government gave assurances that immigration would be limited to about 12,000, but in the event it turned out to be hundreds of thousands. Furthermore, experience has shown that as the EU has grown larger, additional significant new powers are demanded for the institutions of the Union on the basis that these are needed to cope with the additional size and complexity of the enlarged Union. Indeed, every new treaty has extended the power and influence of the European Union, especially the Single European Act, the TEU—the Maastricht treaty—Nice and Amsterdam, culminating, of course, in the Lisbon treaty which, according to Monsieur Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, incorporated everything, except for a few minor items, that was in the European constitution, which he masterminded. So the issue of new accessions is of vital importance, and it is ongoing. There are at present four candidate countries—Croatia, the former republic of Macedonia, Turkey and Iceland. There are also five potential candidate countries—Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia. They are all poorer countries; one of them is near-bankrupt and in danger of defaulting on its debts. Their combined population is nearly 100 million. Ninety per cent of Turkey, by far the largest of the applicants by population, is geographically in Asia, so the European Union would in my view—and in anyone else’s view, I imagine—be transformed by Turkey’s admission into a Eurasian union. Furthermore, Turkey’s population at present is 77 million, far more than that of any other country in the present European Union. By the time Turkey is admitted, that figure will have increased to at least 85 million, on the basis of 1.5 per cent annual growth. The country is, by religion, 97 per cent Islamic. This is bound to have some effect on the ethos of the Union itself. It is also likely to be a drain on its resources. Turkey is already in receipt of €900 million a year. We also have to consider the implications for social cohesion. The people of Turkey, as well all those from other applicant countries, will have the right to come to the United Kingdom to work and live, yet the British people who will have to deal with the consequences of a large influx of people will have no say as to whether Turkey or any other of the candidate countries should be admitted. In total, and at existing population levels, the potential increase in the EU’s population would be 20 per cent—from 500 million to 600 million. The total number of member states would rise to 36. However, it is unlikely that the drivers of the EU will want to limit the number of countries to 36. Already, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are being groomed for possible membership. Their total population would add 55 million to that of the EU. The French clearly have ambitions for the incorporation, in some way or another, of at least some of the countries of north Africa into the Union. The long-term outlook for the EU is to grow and grow, mopping up formerly independent nations and moulding them into a polyglot centrally controlled empire. I do not believe that that is the sort of future that the British people wish for. Their long history of building a free and democratic society, with lasting institutions to ensure stability, continuity and prosperity, is too precious to be sacrificed on the altar of vastness. The British people should at least be given the opportunity to have a say in how big the Union should be, who should join it and, indeed, whether they should be part of it at all. I beg to move.