My Lords, I join others in thanking the Minister for bringing this forward. If I am critical of the Government, I hasten to add that it is nothing personal. To paraphrase “The Godfather”, “It was only business—tell Lord Caine that I like him”. Where I make criticisms of the Government, it is not to detract from the Minister’s contribution today. The level of disappointment here—irrespective of whether we have a devolved settlement—is to do with the inadequacy of funding provided for public sector services in Northern Ireland by this budget. As the previous speaker, my noble friend Lord Morrow, highlighted, this reinforces the position in 2022.
As anyone who has been involved with any government department will know, that department often has a wish list of things that it would like to do—desires, if you like. But this is not about desires for public service expenditure; this is about public service expenditure needs. Since the beginning of 2022, for possibly the first time—certainly since 2015, when the Holtham formula was largely adopted by the Government—we see a region of the United Kingdom funded below its objective needs. As highlighted by my noble friend Lord Morrow, the figures were produced by the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council, in addition to other bodies. It should be noted that the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council is a government body, not a think tank or a lobby group. It identified the shortfall last year as £322 million; this year it is £431 million. That is £0.75 billion over two years, exacerbated by the money that has had to be paid back over the past two years because of last year’s overspend, which would not have arisen in the first place had there been proper levels of funding.
That needs to be seriously addressed. In the long run there is a need to look at the Barnett formula in great detail. The Barnett consequential squeeze has meant that since 2019, on average, UK expenditure has gone up by about 6% per annum; in Northern Ireland it is 3.6%, with the result of where we are today. That indicates why there is a longer-term need to look at Barnett. As indicated, the Holtham formula can produce a solution, at least in the short term. It probably took about seven years of discussions between the Welsh Government and the UK Government to get adoption—I expect the noble Lord, Lord Murphy, will be more familiar with this—but when it was adopted it was meant to be a UK-wide formula so that it could be applied to Northern Ireland to provide a level of support.
I am the first to acknowledge that there is a need for reform in public sector provision, as there is throughout the United Kingdom. This is good because we should always be looking at how we can get the best value from our public services for the expenditure put in place. However, I add at least three caveats. First, any form of public sector reform often requires initial investment to produce savings. It is not something that will produce an instantaneous result. Secondly, in my experience, whatever the value of public sector reform, in and of itself it is not enough to fill the gap: we need additional expenditure. Specifically in Northern Ireland, do we believe that, even in a restored situation, Sinn Féin in particular, given its track record on public sector reform, will embrace it or even just tolerate it? In the past it has moved to block and veto any reform and we would be deluding ourselves if we think that will be an easy route.
As for the current budgets, the department with which I am most familiar is the Department of Education, where the permanent secretary has identified a shortfall of over £300 million on current activities. That needs to be contextualised because it is simply doing what it is already committed to. It does not take into account the fact that, for the last two or three years, we have not had an agreement between the teaching unions and the management side, so teachers’ pay in Northern Ireland is considerably less than in the rest of the United Kingdom. If there was an agreement tomorrow, there simply would not be the money to pay that level of uplift.
The fact is that we are unable to progress childcare. Again, the level of provision and entitlement for parents is the least of anywhere in the United Kingdom. More than 80% of the education budget goes directly in salaries to front-line workers. Much of the remainder falls under a situation in which parents have a statutory right to access various things as legal requirements. The headroom within the Department of Education to meet that shortfall is extremely limited.
That means that, like some of the cuts already made, any of the pressures in the Department of Education will have to be met by targeting the most vulnerable in our society. For example, the report A Fair Start identified that the interventions required to tackle educational underachievement, particularly among the economically disadvantaged, will not be able to progress in the way that they are meant to. It means that SEN pupils, particularly those identified,
will not have the resources and support that they need. It means that, because some of the programmes designed to try to boost those who have issues around educational underachievement and the socially disadvantaged are not statutory, they are the first that any department will cut. That is the crisis we face in education.
I conclude by mentioning another subject that should have been a good news story from a financial point of view but has been handled in a deeply dismaying way. Earlier this week, we saw the announcement of a package of support, spanning a number of years, through the PEACE PLUS programme. This is designed to support Northern Ireland and the border counties in the Republic of Ireland. The source of more than 85% of its funding came from the British Government and I commend them for it. However, the presentation of the announcement by the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, made it look largely like this was an intervention by the Irish Government. I have to say that both his recent comments on a united Ireland and the overreach from the Irish Government on PEACE PLUS are deeply unhelpful. When the Minister is winding up, I would be grateful if he could address the situation with PEACE PLUS and the presentation of its funding sources.
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