My Lords, I am very grateful to all noble Lords who have taken part in this short debate. I will start with the point raised by the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, about how we got to where we are. There is not a formula per se, but obviously consultation with the industry and other stakeholders was incredibly important. We also looked at detailed data on flights.
It is quite interesting speaking to airlines; I was speaking to one yesterday. They might say, “We’re back up to 100% and are doing brilliantly, thank you for asking”, because they fly the European routes, which have been open for a very long time and where the demand is back. However, we know that there is wide variation in the number of routes that can be flown at the moment. Some of the long-haul routes are still not open, particularly those to China, for example, and Japan has only recently opened up. In aggregate, the picture is looking much better for the airlines, but there are still some places that cannot be flown to, which, to my mind, means that maintaining 70:30 for at least the winter season is the right decision.
The noble Lord went on to ask whether we will be doing it in future. I am not sure; that is what we are doing right at this moment. I take heed of his words that we have to be very careful with slots. We must look at the things we have in our armoury. This 70:30 slot alleviation is potentially a very large hammer to crack a nut. We would potentially look again at justified non-use. Once we and other areas of the world are further out of the pandemic, what does justified non-use look like? It seems to me that it could be a better thing to use, because you want to try to protect some airlines from factors beyond their control. I cannot say where we will go in future. Do I think it will look exactly like this? I do not think so, but I am content with where we are at the moment and where we have got to in the proposals that we have set out.
The noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, talked about demand being suppressed. Obviously, we have quite a lot of data on why demand is being suppressed. There is still a reluctance from some to come back to the skies, because of Covid. They do not particularly want to travel just yet. I agree with her that this summer did not do the aviation sector any favours: I have made the point to many people in the sector that there is a job of work to do on public perception. The sector should make sure that going on holiday, for example, is not a chore but a delight. Airports and travelling should be a delight; you want to join your airline going off to Corfu, or wherever, with the bar fully stocked and everything working. I am focusing on working with the industry on getting the industry working—not only airlines and the airports but third-party suppliers—and then making sure that we somehow get across to the travelling public that some of those terrible Daily Mail front pages from the beginning of last summer are no longer the case at all.
The noble Baroness expressed some doubt over whether the alleviation is needed for the winter season; I think I have managed to explain the Government’s position on that. The pandemic is quite far away in our rear view mirror but not in other parts of the
world, some of which are the very valuable long-haul destinations. One would not necessarily want to disrupt the slots for them at this time.
I take the noble Baroness’s point about the impact assessment, although the Government stand by our position that it is for six months. Obviously, we put as much information as we possibly could in the impact assessment.
The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, is right about London Heathrow; it is proposing that the passenger cap comes off at the end of October. I warmly welcome that. Heathrow, like many other airports, is very reliant on third-party suppliers and, as the noble Lord knows, the Government are undertaking a review of ground handling. That is one of the unseen parts of the entire system and if it breaks down, everyone gets very cross because their luggage does not arrive—and quite rightly so. They blame the airline, the airline has contracted the ground handlers and the ground handlers do not really see the anger of the passengers, so there is a bit of work to be done there.
The noble Lord also brought up the question of alleviation at the other end. I had the same question. However, I am reassured—and airlines have not raised this with us—that different alleviation measures in different countries have not caused a problem, so that is not necessarily an issue we need to worry about.
Are we concerned if airlines consolidate at London Heathrow? Yes, I am, actually. I do not want airlines to consolidate at Heathrow unless they have no alternative. If they have slots at other airports, I should very much like them to stay in those other airports. The Government are very much committed to regional airports.
There are no ghost flights—or fewer than 1% in the second quarter of 2022, and they were not caused by slot rules. Because the alleviations have been in place for so long now, the system has managed to adjust to them. All being well, in future, we will have no ghost flights.
I have had quite a lot of deep dives into slots and slot reform, something the Government said we would look at in Flightpath to the Future. It is hugely complicated: there is the balance between wanting the industry to invest for the long term, competition and not, as the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, pointed out, upsetting the apple cart by doing things that have unintended consequences. We will be looking at that very carefully.
Finally, the noble Lord, Lord Jones, spoke about Cardiff. I am pleased to say that although the regulations cover Wales, Cardiff is not an airport with co-ordinated slots. It is not quite busy enough for there not to be enough slots. We now have to get more airlines flying into Cardiff, then it will have co-ordinated slots and any regulations will cover it. For the time being, however, it has enough slots to go around. I commend the regulations to the Committee.