My Lords, in making foreign policy, it is a good idea to think about who you might have as an ally before taking the initiative. The only world leader I can think of who might raise a cheer if this Bill became law is Vladimir Putin, because it would sow division and discord among key members of the alliance supporting Ukraine. I note the Minister’s careful emphasis on technical discussions going on with the EU. I welcome that but, since the Government have also chosen to bring this Bill to Second Reading today, I want to take the opportunity to set it in the wider context of our national security.
The House is very well aware that we are at a very dangerous moment in the largest war in Europe since World War II. Putin’s massive gamble is going very badly. He is lashing out at civilian targets. He is seeking to frighten Ukraine’s supporters with his reckless talk of nuclear weapons—a sign of weakness rather than strength. This is a moment for unity among all those countries supporting Ukraine. That will be more necessary than ever during what will be a difficult winter.
What are the immediate prospects? My guess is that the fighting will subside when the cold weather comes and there will be stand-off along the front line. That will trigger a race against time to ensure that Ukraine is well enough funded and supported to have the upper hand when the fighting resumes in the spring.
The NATO response has been admirable. I have never known that organisation be stronger or more united than it is now. I congratulate the Government on all that they have done on that. The EU has also been more decisive than I would have expected, although it should be doing more to carry out its undertakings on financing and weapons. I gather that there has been good working co-ordination between the UK and the EU on issues such as Russia sanctions, although the Government find it hard to acknowledge that in public.
It was excellent that the Prime Minister went to the Prague summit of the 44 European countries but that is not a policy-making forum. It will meet only once every six months. There is no substitute for high-level UK-EU co-ordination in the coming months on the issues of the crisis that lie outside the remit of NATO. To take two of those issues, preventing sanctions evasion will be essential if we are to prevent Russia rebuilding its stocks of weapons using western microelectronics, and energy security and supply will be a vital issue on which we must talk to the EU.
One of the greatest risks to western strategy is Ukraine fatigue setting in across Europe as high energy prices take their toll on public opinion in many countries. Look only at what is happening in Italy with the new coalition before it is even formed, to say nothing of Orbán’s antics in Hungary. What is the relevance of all this to the Second Reading of this Bill? It should be a top priority for Britain to keep support for Ukraine strong and to prevent it ebbing away. There is a real premium on solidarity. It is therefore the worst possible moment for the British Government to be pushing forward on taking powers to renege on our international law commitments to the EU. If the Bill becomes law, the EU will retaliate. Remember the very careful words from Commissioner Šefčovič, who said that enacting this Bill would undermine
“the trust that is necessary for bilateral EU-UK cooperation within the framework of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement”—
the trust that is so vital right now. Is this really the time risk a trade war with the EU, when we have a real war a couple of hours’ flying time away?
I am glad that the Prime Minister has now accepted that France is a friend, not a foe, and that she and President Macron agreed in principle to a summit next year. Very good, but if the Bill becomes law, a reset with the French is out of the question, as is an improvement in bilateral relations with our other EU partners.
The noble Lord, Lord Cormack, referred to President Biden’s comments to the Prime Minister, as reported by the White House. He told the Prime Minister about the importance of a negotiated agreement with the EU on the protocol. Surely what is going on in Ukraine puts everything else into perspective. It is good to know that we are having technical discussions with the EU on the protocol, but we have found in the past that threatening unilateral action does not have a positive impact on negotiations with the EU—rather the reverse. If the Government insist on pushing the Bill through and on to the statute book, it will open up new divisions with the EU and damage our reputation as a serious country in all democratic countries around the world. I strongly support the case for a pause at some stage in the passage of this Bill.
4.14 pm