My Lords, today signals a historic move in the Government’s approach to tackling the Covid-19 epidemic—a significant move away from detailed government regulation and restrictions; a return to personal responsibility; a renewed emphasis on individual choice; and an “up to you to decide” policy rather than the Government legislating over the intricate details of every aspect of social behaviour. While this is welcome to the population at large, to government and, in particular, to the libertarian instincts of many politicians—not least the Prime Minister—it raises a number of important questions for government.
Having decided to go ahead with a move to phase 3, the Government are in practice demonstrating their belief, driven by the evidence, that vaccination levels have now reached the point where we have decoupled the number of people in our country being infected with Covid-19, in particular variant B1617, from those who would require hospitalisation or become ill with long Covid, leaving those who, if infected, will have increased resistance and can be treated at home with improved medication to counter the illness. If the Government are absolutely satisfied that, yes, we have reached that point, we are right to take our foot off the restrictions and move to an era of personal responsibility. If not, this is the most serious risk the Government will have taken during the epidemic, and the scientific evidence they rely on will rapidly lose public confidence.
On the one hand, the evidence is strong that the time is right for phase 3. Since the winter peak, we have seen a reduction of 96% in those requiring hospitalisation.
With test and trace, free lateral flow tests now available and improved medication, many will agree with the Government that the time is right. Yet, with variant B1617 potentially 40% to 50% more transmissible than the UK variant, step 3 could lead to a large resurgence of cases. Many scientists are arguing that we need more time to assess the impact this surge is having on transmissibility, infection and severity of illness.
However, my major concern today, shared by my noble friend Lady Wheatcroft and others, continues to be the transport policies: international travel and the mixed messages regarding holidays and business visits; the traffic light system; the time allowed for a massive influx of people from countries signalled to face future restrictions just days before they come into effect; and inadequate border control measures when they fly here. It is not surprising to learn that the mayor has today indicated that in London there were some 400 recent cases of the Indian variant, of which 100 were associated with travel.
I call on the Government to provide clearer and more effective travel policies, to review the policies they have set and to continue with clear restrictions on international travel. The weakest element of our overall policy since the first lockdown has been our travel policy. For all my strong support of the vaccination policy and the work the Government and my noble friend the Minister have done, especially this year, our policies on transport have been unclear, often poorly timed and, frankly, ineffective. We have encouraged tens of thousands of people back to this country on crowded flights after announcing impending travel bans.
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