My Lords, I am very grateful to the Minister. The debate takes place as we take the next step out of lockdown, but it also comes as concern rises about the impact of the Indian variant. Getting the balance right between getting back to normal as soon as possible and understandable caution about the risk of opening up too soon will always be an incredibly difficult judgment. But the Government’s record of vacillation and delay over key decisions does not inspire confidence, and the delay in placing India on the red list is at least questionable, given the rate of Covid cases in that country at the beginning of April.
The SAGE meeting on 13 May pointed to the multiple fast-growing clusters of the B16172 variant, most noticeably in the north-west of England, with transmission faster than that of the B117 variant most prevalent in the UK. SAGE concluded that it is a “realistic possibility” that the Indian variant is
“as much as 50% more transmissible”
and warned:
“In the areas where numbers of infections are increasing rapidly under the measures”
then
“in place, an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed.”
Of course, today, they have been so relaxed. SAGE warned that if the Indian variant
“were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7 … it is likely that progressing with step 3”—
which we are doing today—
“would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.”
SAGE concluded:
“Progressing with both steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak.”
It is therefore legitimate to ask the Minister why, in view of that, we are going ahead with step 3 today. What factors will be taken into account in respect of a decision to go ahead with step 4? What will the Government use as metrics to decide whether tougher restrictions need to be imposed nationally or locally? As we will not know until mid-June at the earliest the full impact of step 3 on hospitalisations and deaths, does the Minister agree that decisions on further steps out of lockdown must be considered after this information becomes available?
SAGE also pointed out that
“increasing regional vaccination in areas where it is prevalent could dampen growth in infections”.
Why do the Government seem to have been so slow to respond to health bodies in the north-west which wanted them to approve an emergency vaccination programme? The Minister may have seen reports today that health officials in Bolton have fast-tracked vaccination to residents as young as 17. What is the Government’s view on that?
2.42 pm