My Lords, I am delighted, as are others I am sure, by the news of the Oxford vaccine. I hope that it will lead to a return to normality.
In my two minutes, I will focus on one issue alone: do these restrictions and lockdowns work? As the noble Lord, Lord Hunt of Kings Heath, referred to, SAGE—which is apparently running the country now, too—said back in September that it was certain that two-week or three-week circuit breakers would crack the growth in cases. Wales did this and cases rose rapidly shortly afterwards. We had a month’s lockdown in November that ended not a month ago. Cases went up, or are now going up anyway. Huge damage is being done to the country, livelihoods, the economy, suicide rates, and to young people and their future.
So do these restrictions work? I am very grateful to my noble friend the Minister, as I got a response from him yesterday. I asked whether they worked, and he said:
“Evidence suggests that more stringent interventions tend to reduce the reproduction number … The lockdown imposed in late March and the changes in behaviour … resulted in a rapid reduction in the reproduction number … We continue to review the efficacy of measures.”
In other words, we do not actually know whether they work. Leicester has essentially been under lockdown since July. It will now almost certainly be properly locked down into tier 4 later today. Lockdowns just do not appear to work. We do not know about this new variant; my noble friend the Minister said that just a short while ago. We do not know whether these restrictions work. We are trashing our future based on risk-averse scientific advice, based on failed modelling, from scientists who do not know either.
I regret to say that the Government are losing the confidence of the public because they keep changing their mind. I also regret to say that people are now ignoring government advice and diktats because they no longer believe what they are being told by the Government.
1.18 pm