Dame Deirdre Hine’s report on the 2009 influenza pandemic recommended raising public awareness and understanding about the key characteristics of a pandemic and core response measures. Yet we learned little. A failure of public communication through excessively optimistic mixed messages has led to deepening distrust. Some reporters, such as Fergus Walsh, have explained the scientific and clinical reality well, but we need clear, consistent messaging across the UK, sharing uncertainty and true risk. For example, the B.1.1.7 variant infectivity in effect adds more than 0.4 to the R number. The current reality is proving even worse than the modelling predictions for the coming months for bed shortages, overloaded services, staff infections and exhaustion. Second-time infections are now presenting, as antibodies seem to be short-lived.
Yes, the vaccine is brilliant news; it should prevent fatal infection. But infection control measures will remain essential in the long term. We do not know how long the immunity will last, whether those immunised will still get infected and be viral carriers and spreaders, nor how rapidly further mutations will develop, leading to the need for new modifications and new vaccines. Will the Government collate immunisation data from the NHS number with diagnostic data in the long term to understand the epidemiology as it evolves? Mixed messages and false hope fuel mistrust. Control will only be achieved by collaboration with the public when they understand that vaccination is not a quick fix.
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