“Uninformed” and “superficial” are the most polite that I could find. The document does not even scratch the surface of what
Parliament ought to be given. It ducks the question of whether alternative policies would have resulted in better or worse outcomes. It proceeds on the basis that the only alternative is one of no action, which is a deeply flawed counterfactual advocated by no one. There is nothing concrete on costs and benefits in terms of health, the economy or the wider societal impacts. The lack of economic analysis, apart from a bit of lift and shift from the OBR last week, is really frightening. We learned from the Times this morning that further analysis does exist in Whitehall on the impact on business sectors, but that has been suppressed.
The hospitality sector has been brutalised by the various lockdowns and restrictions since March. Those still standing wonder whether they can survive tier 2 or 3, which will wholly or partly kill the profitable Christmas trading period. This morning the Government have promised £1,000 for pubs forced to close—but it would be a Christmas miracle if that had more than a marginal impact.
Nobody is pretending that it is easy to decide on the trade-offs between Covid and non-Covid health outcomes, the economy and wider impacts. The Government have a difficult task. But they are letting everyone down by constantly framing the arguments in terms of modelled extremes, such as overwhelming the NHS or exaggerated numbers of Covid deaths. We need a grown-up conversation. Society may well be better served by outcomes which increase short-term Covid deaths but do less long-term harm to the economy and to non-Covid health outcomes.
I wanted to be able to support the Government, as I normally do with enthusiasm, but I cannot do so in this case and will support my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe if she chooses to divide the House.
6.29 pm