My Lords, a vaccine against Covid-19 is about to be rolled out to millions of people, so I was surprised by one or two of the arguments we heard this afternoon. I cannot, in particular, support the fatal amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, because the consequence would be that England would have no restrictions at all after today. Having got this close to a vaccine, that would be irresponsible. I am doubtful too about the regret amendment in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, about which we have just heard. That is because restrictions are necessary to stop unnecessary deaths and pressures on the NHS this winter. She is right about the importance of impact assessments, however.
The R number may have gone under 1.0, and there may have been a drop in the level of new cases—about a third since the national lockdown began—but numbers are still far too high. In the week 15 to 21 November, the ONS estimated that 633,000 people in private households had the virus. That figure seems far too high.
My noble friends Lady Brinton and Lord Scriven said a number of things with which I strongly agree. There is a need for consistency of message. It is now time to do things differently, and we need an end to chopping and changing rules that the public cannot understand.
For me, this is all about the timing of the vaccine rollout. A lot of people are very frightened by the virus, want to get the vaccine as soon as they can, and are prepared to have their freedoms restricted a bit to achieve that. Those who object to restrictions during the pandemic should think carefully about the potential impact of no restrictions on other people. The fact that they themselves have not had coronavirus or, if they do get it, are not at significant risk from it, is secondary to the rights of other people, who may be more vulnerable, to be protected from it. We should add to that principle the very obvious fact that the winter period is when the NHS is busiest, so any action which knowingly weakens the ability of the NHS to cope with the virus in the winter and early spring would make things worse.
I cannot support the amendment tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, because the Christmas relaxation rules are actually quite strict, and a Christmas celebration would be good for many people’s morale. People will need to be sensible and avoid risks, but beating the virus still needs a degree of trust with the public.
What I have said so far should not be taken as support for the Government. This is because we need to know the strategy to roll out vaccines. We need a test, trace and isolate system that does not fail to make contact with 40% of close contacts. We need the full scientific evidence on which the tier system is based and a clearer exit route from a tier designation. I hope that the Minister might be able to commit to decisions on tiers and local rules being made jointly with local authorities, and that all decisions on tiers will be subject to parliamentary scrutiny.
I come to two further matters. First, community testing was supposed to be the way of moving out of tier 3, as in Liverpool, yet today we have heard that some areas may not get access to this testing until the end of January. Is that true? It does seem a long time.
Secondly, an improved package of financial support for retail, leisure and hospitality businesses is needed in the tier 3 areas—and I should say that I live in one of them. Many such businesses have one-third of their annual turnover in December. If they do not get more help, very many will not now survive. I suggest to the Minister that this should include a further payment holiday for business rates through 2021-22, with a one-off grant system based on rateable value to enable businesses to survive through the winter.
This week, we have heard that nearly one-third of England’s hospital trusts have now exceeded their first-wave peak. We owe it to NHS workers to reduce the stress placed on them over the winter period. The position that we are in today results from failures in the Government’s management of the pandemic over the last year, with constant changes to strategy and to lockdown rules, overcentralised structures and a tendency to act too late. That having been said, we must avoid
another national lockdown in the new year. For that reason, further restrictions now are essential, and they do have broad public support.
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