My Lords, this promises to be a very important debate, going to the heart of how we are handling this terrible epidemic. I do not support the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, but he is right to pose challenges about the Government’s management of the pandemic, which has been less than consistent. In fact, when one thinks of the Prime Minister’s ducking and weaving, the half promises and the hopes that relaxation will be lifted, it is not surprising that it has not inspired confidence among members of the public; I do not think the impact assessment published yesterday inspired confidence either. It looks very much like a cut-and-paste job, strewn with errors.
A much more accurate assessment of where we are was given in the Financial Times yesterday. It was a very sober analysis, which showed that the UK was spending proportionately more money than any other country in fighting the pandemic, and that we were languishing at the bottom of the league table of economic performance and virus deaths. The conclusion of that analysis is that, essentially, our poor performance came about because we allowed the virus to become prevalent in the spring before enforcing social distancing. That meant that the Government were ultimately forced to impose the more draconian restrictions that undermined the economy so grievously.
The noble Lord referred to the economic difficulties that we will face in generations to come. Noble Lords will know that the OBR said in its central forecast last week that the UK economy was set to shrink by 11.3% in 2020 with a deficit set to hit £394 billion. We are spending more than most G7 countries yet suffering a deeper decline in economic output than any of them —and, sadly, this does not seem to have saved lives, as the current total number of deaths per 100,000 people from coronavirus puts us at the bottom of the international league table. When reviewing the data, Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College, said the errors came in locking down too late in March, allowing the virus to spread in care homes and then delaying a second set of national restrictions well after most scientists had realised this was inevitable.
It is unforgiveable that the Government repeated their error in the autumn. At the 58th meeting of SAGE on 21 September, it was noted that Covid-19 instances were increasing, even though the effects of schools and universities reopening were only just beginning to come through. At that meeting, SAGE asked for a package of interventions including a circuit breaker. As in the spring, however, the Government resisted decisive action.
The advice from SAGE in the run-up to Christmas has once again been clear. It points to the potential threat of substantial mixing of people over a short period of time, representing a significant risk for widespread transmission. This is not the time to relax our guard or underestimate the pressures on the National Health Service.
I would like to suggest an answer to the questions raised by the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, about the NHS. I understand there have been a series of comments from Conservative MPs that the NHS is now under
less pressure than it was a year ago and, essentially, has the capacity to cope with more patients from a relaxation of social-distancing rules. The analysis published over the weekend by Chris Hopson from NHS Providers offered a very strong refutation. As he said, the NHS is actually at full stretch, juggling the demands from Covid-related care with urgent and emergency treatment for other conditions. Stringent infection controls are required, so every hospital has to be divided into three areas. That has reduced their capacity from between 5% and 20% depending on the conditions in each local hospital. We know that demand for theatre space is hugely outstripping supply and that trusts in areas of high infection rates are losing large numbers of staff because of self-isolation, family responsibilities and staff falling ill with Covid.
Much of this would not show up in hospital demand and bed occupancy data, but the best guess is that today’s 85% total bed occupancy is the equivalent of the normal 95% rate when the NHS is probably overoccupied and going at full pelt. Similarly, ICU capacity is not a good indicator of hospital provision because it accounts for only a small proportion of a hospital’s total bed capacity, with many more Covid patients now being treated in general wards. As for the Nightingale hospitals, it would be fair to say that they were always intended as a last resort. Also, they do not have the staff there; staff would have to be diverted from our other hospitals, which would reduce the standard of care there, so it really is a last resort.
Frankly, the NHS is at full stretch. It has not yet hit the real winter pressures. Vaccines, more testing and new drugs offer us the way out. This is the last moment we should relax our guard. I should also say that a semblance of competence from the Government might help.
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