My Lords, I shall speak to Amendment 22 standing in my name and that of the noble Lords, Lord Wigley and Lord Cormack, and the noble Baroness, Lady Finlay of Llandaff, to whom I am grateful.
Why this Bill? Is there a clamour from voters to change their constituencies? No. Do, for example, rural voters in Wales want even larger constituencies because they think that their MPs are too close to them? No. So what is the motivation?
Much is made by Ministers, as the noble Lord, Lord True, has already done, of the case for equalisation, but equalisation has been the principle behind our constituency system for generations—we all accept that principle. The point is that the Boundary Commissions have had the discretion to apply it fairly and sensibly, taking proper account of local views, of community identity and of geographic sparsity instead of being rigidly straitjacketed, as this Bill requires.
The Bill means that the uniqueness of Wales, in the past always having had special consideration by this Parliament, including in the 1944 Act, and by the Boundary Commissions, is ignored. In no other nation of Britain, proportionate to the population, are there such large and remote areas and vast geographical rural areas where there are thousands more sheep than people and constituencies are hundreds of square miles if not larger. Yet under this Bill, four existing geographically large seats in Wales could well become, and almost certainly will become, two monster ones. Instead of being hundreds of square miles in size, each will become thousands of square miles, in mid-Wales, north Wales and west Wales—none of them, by the way, Labour seats, so no party pleading is going on here.
Much has been made about the Bill creating constituencies that are more equal in size, but that has come at the expense of community ties, history and geography. We do not live in a world where populations grow in neat conurbations which fit an electoral quota dictated from on high. Nor does our geography in Wales lend itself to communities being switched dogmatically between constituencies to help achieve that quota. Our existing system already takes account of that by trading off strict electoral quotas in order to prioritise community identity, local ties and geography. Identifying with the constituency we live in and the close link between an MP and their constituents are fundamental to our parliamentary democracy and envied by democracies around the world.
The rigidity of the electoral quota and the 5% variance provided for in the Bill put that in jeopardy and give primacy to a rigid mathematical equation which is damaging for our democracy. That is why Amendment 22 proposes, in relation to Wales alone and to meet its specific needs, that the electorate of any constituency be no less than 85% of the United Kingdom electoral quota and no more than 115% of that quota. Why is this needed? Wales’s unique geography means that constituencies can vary drastically, from vast rural constituencies which are sparsely populated, such as the existing Brecon and Radnorshire, to densely populated, small urban constituencies in Cardiff and Swansea.
It is no surprise that two of the five largest geographical constituencies, Montgomeryshire and Dwyfor Meirionnydd, are also two of five smallest in electorate size, while two of the five largest electorates, Cardiff South and Penarth and Cardiff North, are also two of the five smallest geographical constituencies. There is a logic to that. There are seven constituencies in Wales which are more than 1,000 square kilometres in size—Brecon and Radnorshire is more than 3,000 square kilometres—but because of the rigid electoral quota used during the last review under the previous legislation, the Boundary Commission for Wales ended up proposing mega constituencies to achieve numerical parity and to cover the vast areas of sparsely populated rural Wales, as I described in great detail when moving Amendment 14. Much the same will happen under this Bill.
Mega constituencies like that will only alienate voters from those whom they elect to represent them, leaving them feeling more cut off and remote than before. It is a toxic combination which will lead to
disengagement and undermine democracy. Equally, the strict quota is problematic for valley constituencies and makes the task of creating constituencies which make sense to valley communities extremely difficult.
It is not easy to move single communities from a valley and dump them in a different constituency. By their very nature, valley communities are linked and do not easily connect with neighbouring valleys. To reach a neighbouring valley you cannot just drive over a mountain of fields and forests. You have to drive to the top or the bottom, making communication take longer and not easy. Valley communities are also linked to specific towns in terms of transport, community links and historical ties. These community ties form the basis of many of the valley constituencies in the south Wales area, which I know well, still live in, and represented for a quarter of a century.
3.30 pm
During the last boundary review, the rigid quota saw some of those bonds butchered. However, blame should not be laid at the door of the Boundary Commission for Wales, for it is working to the rules laid down by this Parliament. It is hamstrung by those rules and is having to put a rigid mathematical equation ahead of community and historical ties in a way it has never had to do before in the history of Boundary Commissions. This is a revolutionary proposal. The Minister may as well admit that it flies in the face of all history and tradition.
The Boundary Commission for Wales said as much when it gave evidence to the inquiry into parliamentary constituency boundaries:
“Any limit in terms of tolerance from the EQ (electoral quota) restricts the ability of the Commission to take careful account of the unique geography in Wales. For example, the Commission had some concerns about constituencies proposed in the valleys areas due to the 5% limit. The limit created a situation where the commission had to combine and split valleys in order to create constituencies. In the ordinary course of a review these would not form cohesive constituencies.”
Crucially, it went on to say
“the greater the flexibility in terms of electorate numbers, the more cohesive a constituency the commission can create.”
In practice, a 15% variation instead of 5% would provide that flexibility and this small and modest change— to meet Wales’s needs alone, with the Government recognising them and with Parliament doing as historically it has always done—would create far more representative constituencies.
Using the 2019 electorate, I have calculated that the average size of a constituency would be 72,613 and a 5% variance would create constituencies ranging in size from 68,982 to 76,243. Currently, just four Welsh constituencies meet that criteria. However, a 15% variance would see constituencies ranging in size from 61,721 to 83,505. Nine of the existing Welsh constituencies would meet that threshold—nine, not four, as under the smaller rigid restriction.
More importantly, the greater variation gives the Boundary Commission for Wales much more room to manoeuvre, enabling it to create constituencies that communities can identify with. The 7,000 difference between the lower thresholds can mean the difference between a community sitting in its natural, historical
constituency, where it has community ties, or being placed in a completely different one to which it has little affinity.
Greater variation gives the Boundary Commission for Wales greater flexibility to deal with the unique geography of Wales, so that it can accommodate vast geographical areas that are sparsely populated without creating mega constituencies, where communities are bolted on to already large constituencies in an effort to meet an arbitrary electoral quota that equates a dense urban constituency with a sparse rural one. It would allow it to better deal with the densely populated smaller geographical areas, such as our valley communities that have their own distinct identities and geography and cannot be easily moved.
Constituency boundaries should mirror the communities they represent. Boundaries that cut across several councils and geographical borders such as valleys, mountains and rivers do not fit with local community ties and make it difficult for MPs to represent the area that elects them effectively. The ability of voters to identify with a constituency in our political system is crucial. If a community does not identify with a constituency it leads to disengagement and a feeling of disenchantment.
A 15% variance for Wales to meet Wales’s unique demography would strike the right balance between achieving greater parity between the size of constituencies but not at the expense of community ties. It would also be far less disruptive. Without this change the restrictive electoral quota imposed by the Government will inevitably lead to the break up of close-knit communities or the creation of mega constituencies with no natural affinity. International best practice recommends that flexibility should be part of the system to allow for consideration of geography and community ties. The smaller you make the variation, the fewer options you have. The larger you make the variation—and this proposal under Amendment 22 is modest—the more options you have and the more flexibility you have when dealing with problematic border communities, unique geographical areas or the creation of nonsensical constituencies.
Wales will take the biggest hit in terms of constituencies lost in the next boundary review due to the large population shifts in the last two decades, but a 5% variance will double down on that because it will have a disproportionate impact on Wales due to the unique challenges Welsh geography poses. Wales should be treated fairly and not punitively, so it is crucial that the Boundary Commission for Wales is given greater flexibility to take account of this unique geography. There will always need to be a variance, but I submit that a 15% variance strikes a balance between having constituencies that are broadly equal and ones that reflect the local community and represent their communities. I very much hope that the Minister will accept this amendment so I do not need to press it on Report.