My Lords, I regret that I will be unable to follow the noble Earl, because I still believe that leaving the EU is a bad mistake. Mr Tusk was right to say that the remain group—those who did not want to leave and those who want a
second referendum—are in trouble because we lack leadership. We need a rallying point, but your Lordships will excuse me if I do not go over those arguments.
This is a strange and fairly terrible moment in the history of this country. We are so conditioned by the events of the last two years that we are no longer surprised that the fate of this country is still undecided, six weeks before Brexit is due to take effect. We still do not know whether we are going to remain, crash out, or do a deal. All we know is that Brexit means Brexit—we are no further forward. What we lack is any mechanism for ensuring that it is not chaotic. I share the anxiety of my noble friend Lord Butler and others about the massive overhang of legislation and statutory instruments we face. We cannot deal with them in the time left, and it is becoming more and more unconvincing that we will be able to deal with that load in 26 working days, except by allowing the Government a measure of almost despotic Henry VIII powers, which are wholly unacceptable in normal times and set a precedent which should worry us. The role of this House in ensuring that those proposed powers are properly examined and limited is vital. There is a temptation to think that because the press do not report us, we are unimportant. We have a key role to play in examining legislation over the next six weeks. I personally will do my best to be here to vote and to ensure that we do what we can to keep whatever has to be done within reasonable limits.
I have a second worry, which is about my old profession: the Civil Service. Civil servants are keen to do their best for the Government of the day. Do not believe anyone who says anything different. They want to say, “Yes, Minister”. They want to offer a solution to every problem that their political masters offer them, but the scale and complexity of what is being undertaken at the moment is beyond the comprehension of any of us. I was in charge of two government departments before I became Cabinet Secretary, and our relationship with the EU permeated every aspect of our daily life. To try to rewrite that in the next few weeks is almost impossible, and to try to deal simultaneously with two possible outcomes—crashing out and doing a deal—is both a terrible complication of the task and quite possibly beyond their competence. The Civil Service is being asked to do something which no civil service could do. It will do its best but it is almost certain that some awful things will go wrong. My plea is that the political reaction should not be one of blaming the Civil Service but of understanding the scale of the task that it has been set, and for concerns to be focused at the political level, where people can defend themselves, not on people who are unable to defend themselves and have been doing an honourable attempt to implement a colossal task.
Nobody is going to get what they want from this Brexit saga. The Brexiteers are not going to get what they want. I think the Brexit dream is slowly dying. I fear we remainers may not get what we want, although I should be delighted if some deus ex machina emerges in the final squeeze. I do not think that the scale of what has been done will give business what it wants; I think it will find itself without the certainty it needs. I do not think that the people who wanted to restrict
immigration will get what they want. It is quite normal in political affairs for nobody to get what they want, but on this scale it is worth noting.
What we will get is change. We are spending far too much time, because of the Brexit debate, on things that are not of major importance. The ship of state is becalmed. Nothing is going on in government to deal with the big issues facing the country domestically, such as the NHS or universal credit, because all the energy is going into Brexit. Beyond that, the world around us is changing. We think Brexit is the big issue, but the really big issues include the tension between America and China, which will dominate the world over the next 10, 20 or 30 years; there are big issues in Europe, as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, superbly illustrated. We should be part of the solution to these problems, not making them worse by leaving. Technology is changing. I chaired two workshops recently which left me breathless about the scale of change that is coming, which people do not know about. A good example is quantum computing, which will alter computing in the next 20 to 30 years. It will have huge industrial consequences. The world in which we do business, operate and co-operate with other countries will alter. Our energies should be there, instead of us going round in circles and exhausting ourselves with exchanges on subjects that few of us fully understand.
I support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith. The no-deal proposition is terrible and I cannot see why it cannot be ruled out in the national interest. What matters now is the interest not of parties, but of the people on the street—the citizens of this country. History will examine what we do very critically. The eye of history is on our generation. The people who will pay the price and who will write the history are the young. I do not think they will be kind. We should prepare ourselves for some very sharp criticism of the period we are in. The best we can do is to argue for what we believe to be right in the national interest and, as Members of the House of Lords, to examine the Executive and hold them to account with all our best ability and strength.
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