My Lords, considering the lessons of the Brexit debate, the CER’s Charles Grant starts with a dig—although it might have been a compliment—at the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. He describes Article 50 as having been,
“designed to put the departing country in a weak position”,
but he then reckons that,
“the British damaged their already weak hand by putting incompetent and ignorant ministers in charge, by being horribly divided (in contrast to a united EU) and by taking two years to come up with a half-serious proposal for the future relationship”.
He then considers that,
“the biggest lesson … is that any effort to leave the EU will turn out to be … more complicated, time- consuming, expensive and damaging than its advocates ever suggested”.
That is not quite the phraseology of Donald Tusk but I think that the spirit is the same.
Meanwhile, the indecision rolls on. There are 44 days to go and no solution. No one has the foggiest idea how this will all play out. There is no “10 minutes to landing”, in the words of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hope. The electorate, according to Lord Ashcroft’s polls, say that the problem is that Ministers,
“left their homework until Sunday night”.
We now witness the Prime Minister becoming the Oliver Twist of negotiations, not in demanding a better deal for the UK, which of course any Prime Minister should do, but in asking for something for herself—more time. On every occasion on which she comes to Parliament, it is to ask for more—another bowl of time to try to wriggle out of a deal which she signed and negotiated, which she first recommended to Parliament before then voting to change it, and which she now thinks she can get through only by running down the clock. She endlessly asks for time when what she really plans is to take the country to a very high mountain late next month, force it to look over without a parachute—the no-deal jump—and then offer her plastic wings of an inadequate deal to soften the landing on the rocks below. What is her advice to colleagues as they peep over? It is: “Hold your nerve”. What a kamikaze pilot.
We are partly on that cliff edge because the Prime Minister refused to start by building consensus, rather than learning lessons from the Anglo-Irish agreement process, which was described earlier by the noble Lord, Lord Alderdice. Very late in the day she offered talks with the Opposition. What happened when the Opposition responded? Our leader wrote to the Prime Minister, setting out ways in which the deal might attract parliamentary approval through changes to the political declaration, not least to avoid a catastrophic crash-out which would damage business, commerce, travel, our diplomatic, trading and security relationships, and the future of our economy. What did he get in reply? A churlish, inaccurate opening paragraph, where, in response to some thoughtful points about the future, she instead falsely writes:
“It is good to see that we agree … not to seek an election or second referendum”.
Neither Labour nor this letter said anything of the sort. The letter was about the EU deal, making no mention of our much-wanted election, nor a potential referendum—bad politics, Prime Minister. It is a testimony to her own preoccupation with rows in her own party rather than the needs of the country.
More seriously, her letter made no mention of no deal and its avoidance, nor of any extension to the Article 50 timeframe. She dismissed the very inaccurate description of Labour’s call for “a” customs union, to reject “the” customs union, but as the noble Lord, Lord Butler, reminded me earlier, that was something Labour had never asked for. Indeed, a full free trade agreement could, under WTO definition, be a customs union, if it had a common external tariff, which the Article 24 option mentioned earlier would of course not include. It is likely that the full free trade agreement we will probably end up with will have a common external tariff—so that is where we will get to anyway.
I will respond to questions from the noble Lords, Lord Lansley and Lord Howell. First, the noble Lord, Lord Howell, asked where we get our briefing from, as though it were made up in the Library—not a bad place in which to make things up, mind you. I, and all the team working on Brexit, draw on detailed discussions with very seasoned trade negotiators, senior WTO officials and experts, dispute adjudicators and specialist trade lawyers. If anyone thinks we are doing this on
the back of an envelope, I can tell them that that is absolutely not the case. I also say that, yes, we want to be part of a customs union and we wish the Government would discuss this more positively with us, rather than repeating that mantra of an “independent trade policy”, presumably in the belief of some golden goodies coming from the US. But what are those golden goodies? As my noble friend Lord Puttnam warned, American lobbyists are already demanding that any UK-US trade deal goes beyond just the chlorinated chickens we have heard about, to include changes in NHS drug rules, weaker data protection, carcinogens in pistachio nuts and lower food safety standards. Will the Government risk no deal for that?
One line in Jeremy Corbyn’s letter was not disputed by the Prime Minister: that there is,
“a clear majority in Parliament that no deal must … be taken off the table”.
It is obvious why: consider the immediate imposition of tariffs and checks, transport chaos and shortages of medicine and certain foods. It would be catastrophic for certain industries. Just today, we heard about a possible loss of jobs at Ford, because of the challenge to car manufacturing. A no-deal Brexit is,
“the biggest threat businesses have faced since 1939”,
according to one trade association, with the possibility that,
“one in four food exporters…could go out of business within six weeks”,
not least because meat exports, faced with over 13% WTO tariffs, simply become unprofitable. It is not just domestic producers—the Falkland Islands desperately needs to retain its tariff and quota-free access to the EU 27 markets, which take 94% of its fish, as it could not compete with 18% tariffs it would then have to pay, putting all its economy at risk. Mrs Thatcher would not have approved of such disregard of the Falklands.
The CBI’s Carolyn Fairbairn talks of near “negligence” for failing to resolve the political crisis, saying that,
“we really are in the emergency zone of Brexit…this is real danger time”.
Even David Davis seems to accept that danger, calling for a tax-cutting no-deal emergency budget. Chillingly, while acknowledging that sterling could fall by over 20%, he asks:
“Is this such a bad thing?”
Well, clearly not if you are rich and well paid, but on low fixed wages, as food prices soar, it might indeed be such a bad thing. I trust the Telegraph was not well briefed about government plans, codenamed Project After, because it says that these included slashing tariffs and cutting taxes. Less money for Government would mean diminished services, lower incomes, and fewer nurses, teachers and police. I wonder which communities would feel the chill wind of that?
The Prime Minister is, possibly deliberately and certainly irresponsibly, taking us to that cliff edge on 29 March, with perhaps the meaningful vote in the Commons delayed until just days before, if all that Brussels bar talk is to be believed. This makes an extension to Article 50 inevitable, if for no other reason than that your Lordships’ House, let alone business, is not ready for that.
The uncertainty facing citizens, exporters and importers is intolerable. The Government should now admit we need longer before we leave, especially as any extension will require negotiation with EU partners, each and every one of which has to consent. They should start readying for the inevitable now, as recommended by the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hope, the noble Lords, Lord Cormack and Lord Kerr, and the noble Baroness, Lady Bull.
I would never question whether there is a special place somewhere for those who dilly and dally over vital decisions needed for our country. However, I can predict that the electorate will be unforgiving, particularly in polling stations, if Ministers bend more to their ERG caucus than to the interests of the country, sacrificing the economy on the altar of short-term political survival. It is in everyone’s interests that we do not leave the EU without a deal, and it is in democracy’s interests that this matter is brought before Parliament in a timely manner. Without the date in our Motion, such a vote would not be timely, as it would be on the eve of possible of departure—a real gun-to-the-head vote. In light of that, I trust that the whole House will support the Motion shortly to be moved by my noble friend.
9.08 pm