My Lords, over past months we have learned all sorts of names as choices for European Union withdrawal. These include the
Canada formula, the Norway arrangement, an adaptation of the latter called Norway-plus, then the expedient of a United Kingdom-European Union customs union, and, not least, the no-deal option.
Recently, however, quite some publicity has focused instead upon a new suggestion, to which noble Lords have already referred. This seeks to combine the customs union formula with Norway-plus, for one of its elements is the soft Brexit, Norway-plus deployment of membership of the European Economic Area and another is a UK-EU customs union.
Although coming forward rather late in the day, this notion is to be welcomed, for it enables an even wider grapple or context. Within this, each of the proposals, their permutations and their combined total can arguably be assessed all the more accurately.
I will comment briefly on their shortcomings, on the consequent challenge to Parliament and the country, yet on the prospect for the United Kingdom now to go in a much better direction.
Deficiency of offer is notably reflected by the reaction of another place. There is no stomach for any of the proposals. In the first place, to devise a palatable one requires patience and stamina. For seeking to do so, all of us will wish to pay tribute to my right honourable friend the Prime Minister.
Yet this expedient has been defeated by a large majority, and it will not pass without a significant alteration to the backstop, which is unlikely. The most recent intervention, outlined earlier, a UK-EU customs union allied to Norway-plus, might have come to the rescue. But it will not, for beyond Europe it would deny the UK an independent trade policy. Many will object to that.
Nor will it work to play for time. A request for an extension has already been rejected twice in another place. Even if it came to be approved, the EU is unwilling to reopen the withdrawal agreement in any case. Furthermore, remain will not achieve a majority; it only would through a second referendum.
Where Parliament certainly comes together is in its aversion to a no-deal Brexit. This, it is estimated, would produce an economic recession of minus 2% to minus 3% of GDP. As the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hope of Craighead, and several other noble Lords have implied, it goes without saying that such an incompetent outcome would be as little tolerated by the country as it would be by Parliament.
That apart, if no version of an EU withdrawal arrangement is endorsed, there will be a no-deal Brexit. Among others, the noble Baronesses, Lady Smith and Lady Bull, and the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, are correct to warn that at the moment that eventuality is far more likely than not; albeit not so much through any degree of complacency in Parliament. In fact, almost the reverse is true, more from an increasing awareness that the issue has become too hot to hold.
To protect against a no-deal Brexit: that is why the matter should now be returned to the country, as a number of noble Lords have advocated. Parliament would then have a clear mandate to deploy one of three alternatives: the Prime Minister’s current plan, no deal or remain. It has been alleged that it would not be procedural, and that it would be wrong to do this.
Until last month, that caution had some force. Now it no longer does. For, conversely, it would be highly irresponsible and far worse for Parliament to drift into a no deal without public consent, irrespective of a possible convincing public demand not to return this to the country. That is a point which the noble Lord, Lord Wilson of Dinton, my noble friend Lady Altmann and others have stressed.
As noble Lords have also mentioned, there is now much more information and knowledge on the consequences of EU withdrawal than was the case in 2016. To avoid a no-deal Brexit, if consulting public opinion is the right action, there is also the corollary to that, and the prospect of a much better direction, one of stronger unity among parliamentarians and improved public trust in them—and, towards the United Kingdom from those in Europe and beyond, of greater confidence and respect.
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