My Lords, I will probably not be quite as brief as the noble Baroness, Lady Garden, but I support the Motion of my noble friend Lord Hunt. In doing so, I hope to help the Minister with some experiences from the past, which I think are very germane.
My noble friend Lord Hunt and I entered this House on exactly the same day: 5 November 1997. He came as someone with great authority and experience in the National Health Service; I came from a terribly different world, with the specific job of working for the right honourable David Blunkett—now the noble Lord, Lord Blunkett, then the Secretary of State for Education. We had a crisis in teaching and with teachers. I commend to the House the front page of the Times Educational Supplement from 6 April. It states:
“Missing: 47,000 secondary teachers. In a system already struggling to fill the gaps, some are thinking the unthinkable: is it time for teaching without teachers?”
I would add this: is it time for nursing without nurses?
The situation is very serious because any possibility that the Minister and his department have of resolving the problem depends entirely on the pipeline supplied by the teaching profession. That has a time factor attached to it, which is very important. It took the Blair Government—I worked constantly at the department for education—six years to get back to equilibrium after the teaching crisis. We were short of around 47,000 teachers—ironically, almost exactly the same number that we are short of today.
Here is the problem: a demographic bulge will hit us in 2024. At that point, we will be short of something close to 50,000 secondary teachers. It is totally predictable; we can see it coming. It happens to be coming at a time when the number of graduates entering the profession are, necessarily, quite light because of an inverted demographic. I am sure that the noble Lord, Lord Willis of Knaresborough, will understand and attest to the figures I am giving. We had an enormous problem. This Government have an enormous problem, and the less they solve their educational pipeline problem, by ensuring that there are enough teachers in the system, the worse the nursing problem will get.
I commend the past to the Minister. We learned a powerful lesson between 1997 and 2003. Unless the Minister wants to revisit a similar lesson in the National Health Service, he must address this issue now.