My Lords, it is a great pleasure for me to follow the noble Lord, Lord Winston. He has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Furthermore, he made a moving and compelling speech, and the Minister would do well to listen to it and heed his words and those of the noble Lord, Lord Triesman.
I draw attention to my entries in the register of Members’ interests.
I agree with much of what has been said so far in relation to the unsatisfactory nature of parts of the Bill—especially the sweeping powers that it would, in its current form, give Ministers. I also believe that, for the reasons I shall give, the British people should have the opportunity to give their opinion on the terms of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union.
Many people were extremely confused at the time of the referendum and no one can now say that at that time they could gauge or foresee the conditions, let alone the consequences, of leaving. That is hardly surprising because the Government, with only 14 months to go, seem to have no idea exactly what form of Brexit they are aiming for. As other noble Lords have observed, the Government cannot even agree between themselves a negotiating position.
Other noble Lords have mentioned that there is a very high level of concern in the country about whether we are going to crash out in 14 months’ time with no arrangements agreed with our European partners. The opinion polls are moving against leaving and are strongly moving in favour of the public having the final say once the terms are agreed. It is not difficult to understand why there is this profound concern and worry.
As the noble Baroness, Lady Wheatcroft, said, people are aware that the Governor of the Bank of England has said that the referendum vote has already cost the United Kingdom £20 billion in forgone GDP. This will continue at a higher level if we leave the EU, depending on the terms, if any, that are finally agreed with our EU partners. This dwarfs the net £165 million per week that the UK actually pays the EU, allowing for the rebate and EU investment in the United Kingdom.
It is anticipated that the Treasury will provide impact assessments for various Brexit options, but explicitly excluded from those is the one option that would be most beneficial to the United Kingdom economy: remaining in the European Union, although perhaps a reformed one. The adverse impact of the decision to leave is of growing concern to everyone in the country. A factory worker in the United Kingdom providing part of an international manufacturing process will be deeply concerned about his job, post Brexit, if there are tariffs and customs checks on goods that move in and out of Britain during the manufacturing process.
In any event, we will have to comply with EU regulations and conditions for the work done with other EU countries. Those in the agricultural and horticultural industries are uncertain as to whether they
will be able to continue to hire people from Europe to cultivate and harvest crops. There is deep concern that if a trade deal with the United States is eventually negotiated, agriculture and horticulture will be another industry that will be sacrificed, allowing produce to be imported with far lower standards of husbandry and subject to the use of growth promoters and other processes that are currently forbidden. These products will flood into the country and undermine the value of livestock, cereals and other crops.
Some 60% of those who work in the hospitality industry in London—and 40% outside London—come from other EU countries. What arrangements will be available to the hospitality industry to allow this to continue? The same profound concerns are mirrored in the National Health Service and the care and education sectors. As we have heard from noble Lords, there is deep concern that a mechanism must be made available for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to continue to have the same access as now. Perhaps the Minister will tell us how that will happen without membership of the single market and customs union. Finally, what about the 80% of our economy that is the service sector? Will we continue to have passporting rights into Europe? The French President stated recently that the only way that can be achieved is by staying in the single market and the customs union.
When Article 50 was triggered, we started a journey. We still have no idea of the destination. Neither do the Government. People are unable to gauge the effect that this will have on them and their livelihoods. There is an unseemly rush to leave the EU before the public know the final destination. On the matter of sovereignty, when, or if, we leave the EU—the largest trading bloc in the world—and start to negotiate a deal with the United States, we will have nowhere else to run. The United States negotiators will be extremely tough. They are there, as they always have been, to put America first. Every other country puts its interests first. We will then find out exactly what it means to be a vassal state.
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