My Lords, we know that Brexit would initiate a major constitutional, political, social and economic change to the United Kingdom. The right revered Prelate the Bishop of Leeds was right to address the wider social and cultural implications. The economic factors themselves, however, have serious political and social effects. Perhaps it is not surprising that we have had strong populist movements since the financial crash of 2008. We should therefore heed the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, and indeed Mark Carney, when he notes that Brexit is already costing the United Kingdom around £200 million a week in lost growth.
Today we hear that the Government have finally undertaken economic impact assessments of three possible outcomes, ranging, in effect, from soft Brexit to no deal. In none of these scenarios is our economy as strong as it would be if we remained in the EU. Anyone who has read the so-called impact statements that were hidden away in DExEU cannot but be chilled by the worries from stakeholder after stakeholder about leaving the EU. In sectors such as the life sciences industry, higher education and other service sectors where the UK has a leading edge, the challenges are most acute.
Yet no one knows quite where we are heading, as the chiding of his Government by the noble Lord, Lord Hill, made clear, as did the noble Lord, Lord Patten, in an amazing speech. The Government cannot reconcile the diametrically opposed forces in its own party to plot a way through. The passionate speech from the noble Lord, Lord Bridges, made that clear. Suggesting one course produces a massive abreaction from one side. Suggesting another, an abreaction from the other. Hence the poor officials who draw up legislation and are sitting in the Box today have been mandated to give wide powers to Ministers, depending on the outcome of negotiations and where a future Government wish to head.
However, that will not do. Even the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, hints that it might not. In the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Bill there was the same dilemma, with wide Henry VIIII powers proposed—or Oliver Cromwell powers, to take the point of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hope. The Government should know from the sanctions Bill what is likely to happen here. An amendment on this constitutional matter, in the name of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Judge, won by 80 votes. The noble and learned Lord has already offered his services to parliamentary counsel on the sanctions Bill. This Bill could do with his services, too. The Minister on the sanctions Bill must have been acutely aware that those seeking to tackle those constitutional affronts were rightly called Hope, Judge and Pannick.
There are of course other changes that we should seek in this Bill. We must ensure that Parliament will be given a meaningful vote on the deal, as other EU Parliaments will, as was noted by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon. Given that this process started with a vote of the people, surely the people should be given a vote on the deal. As the noble Lord, Lord Mandelson, pointed out, whether the UK was in or out of the single market or the customs union, for example, was not on the ballot paper. The Government have emphasised that no UK citizen would lose rights as a result of leaving the EU. It is difficult to square that with losing the right to live and work elsewhere in the EU.
There are, however, further threats in the Bill. I briefly mention those in three clauses. The powers in Clause 7 could, for example, be used to water down the Equality Act 2010, as Maria Miller and others pointed out in the Commons, and as emphasised today by the noble Baroness, Lady Drake. Clause 8 addresses Britain’s international obligations. My noble friend Lord Wallace of Saltaire outlined the challenges here. We know that the UK’s role globally will be reduced by being outside the EU. The Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee reported today on serious understaffing in embassies across Europe. This must be addressed, if we are to engage as Ministers suggest, but we will have reduced resources with which to do that. We have already seen our reduced influence when we could not secure a second term for the UK judge in the International Court of Justice. This was for the first time in its history and despite lobbying hard through our embassies across the world.
Clause 8 does have a protective subsection, which my colleague Lady Bowles borrowed for the sanctions Bill. It says, for example, that,
“regulations under this section may not … create a relevant criminal offence”,
which is something we had to knock out of the earlier Bill. But as the Constitution Committee notes, we still need to limit the powers here to those that are necessary and reasonable. Then we come to the astonishing Clause 9, which in effect allows a Minister to modify more or less everything in the Bill and, it seems, any existing law. I think not.
There will be close scrutiny of the Bill in this House. I hope the Government will be as open to working with us as they were on the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Bill. They will have heard the voices behind them, as well as those to the side of and in front of them. I am sure they know that we cannot simply give them and all future Governments a cheque book full of signed blank cheques.
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