We encourage him to continue with his enthusiasm and flair in addressing this important problem.
I start by paying a special tribute to the sponsor of this Bill. Mr Blackman is a man whom I salute. I do so because I was the modest author of two small Private Members’ Bills and I piloted them through Parliament in anticipation of the Freedom of Information Act a long time ago, so I know how precarious these Bills are. The noble Lord, Lord Best, is absolutely correct to say that this is a signal parliamentary moment. I have never come across a Private Member’s Bill that comes armed with a money resolution and the prospect of money. In my experience, that is unique and it is not achieved easily. So I admire Mr Blackman’s professionalism and application. The noble Lord, Lord Best, gave him an appropriate tribute and I want to add to that, because it is very special for him to have achieved his Bill being debated this morning.
I want to go back to 1977. The noble Lord, Lord Best, was right to say that the last time we really addressed this issue was on a Private Member’s Bill in the hands of Mr Stephen Ross—a man of sacred memory and a valued former Liberal colleague. That was 40 years ago. He did not get the money and, apart from the glory of introducing a Private Member’s Bill, he did not get very much else. It was an important Bill. It did not quite have the advantages of prevention that the noble Lord, Lord Bird, has so eloquently spoken about, and that is a significant difference. There is a real danger that this Bill will suffer the same fate as the one introduced by Stephen Ross—I hope not—but Mr Blackman must not give up with his application.
Prevention is very important. It has a much wider application across public services more generally and it can save money for the public purse. If it works—the next two or three years will be fundamental in establishing that—it should be a model, considered for application in other areas of public policy.
I want to say two things: one about context and one to reinforce what has already been said about the social security environment. To a large extent, the situation that we face has to be estimated using forecasts. I say up front that forecasts can be wrong and that things can change, but you do not have to be an economist to understand that the impact of inflation, lower exchange rates and things of that kind do not make things any easier.
Noble Lords will probably know that the bible for those who follow the arguments surrounding living standards is the Resolution Foundation’s Living Standards report, which comes out annually. It was produced earlier this month. The executive summary looked at the regressive nature of future income growth, which I agree is a real matter of concern. It would be out of order for me to go into living standards at any great length but let me, if I may, share with the House a quote from page 10 of the executive summary that caught my attention. In looking at differential growth across income distributions, the Resolution Foundation said:
“The result is that the parliament from 2015-16 to 2020-21 is on course to be the worst on record for income growth in the bottom half of the working age income distribution”.
It goes on to say that,
“we project the biggest rise in inequality since the 1980s, with inequality after housing costs reaching record highs by 2020-21”.
The context in which we are applying this Bill is not auspicious, and that has to be recognised and taken into account by the Government when they are coming to the costings.
I applaud my noble friend Lady Grender for her valuable work in straightening out the data. I never believed the figures, and the work she has done will bear fruit in the future. We should congratulate her on that.
It is not new, but noble Lords will not be surprised to hear me say that the £12 billion cut in social security that we will experience between now and 2020 will have a massive impact on the cohort of our population that might be subjected to the horrors of homelessness in the future. I want to mention five cuts, which are known to the House. The four-year freeze on most working-age benefit rates will save around £5.2 billion. That will have an impact on homelessness. The new two-child limit will save £1.1 billion. In big families, that will also have an impact on homelessness. Cuts to universal credit of £2.7 billion will have a direct impact on homelessness. The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Southwark mentioned the impact that universal credit can have, and there is the additional impact of the long waiting times before people can get the housing element of universal credit, which is currently causing such a problem. Cuts in employment and support allowance for the work-related activity group will save £0.4 billion. That will particularly affect those in our community who are disabled or incapacitated. Finally, the reduced household benefit cap will save £0.4 billion. These cuts are significant not just because of the money they will save but because of the impact they will have on the group of people we are discussing this morning.
I am also particularly worried about the tightening benefit cap, council tax increases and the effect of the local housing allowance. The noble Lord, Lord Best, is right: the private rented sector is a significant worry and we need to pay attention to it.
There will be regional variations in the application of this policy. The noble Baroness, Lady Armstrong, was quite right to give us her experience of what is happening in Durham. Homelessness is not just a London problem. I know that the incidence is high in London, particularly around temporary accommodation. However, it affects the rest of the country, particularly low-income areas. In the future, local authorities will struggle to fund any sensible services.
I strongly support what the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said about veterans. They are one of a number of specifically disadvantaged groups, and that includes those with mental illness more generally, which is a problem we are all struggling to face up to sensibly. I have mentioned families with a larger number of children, and some ethnic-minority communities have particular difficulties. Another group is young people in single households, whether they have had military experience or not. These are all particularly vulnerable cohorts of the population to which we should be giving time and special attention.
There are examples of good practice. Coming from where I do, the House might expect me to say, for example, that Scotland abolished the idea of priority
housing need in 2012. A lot is going on also in Wales, where prevention ideas are being piloted in the new housing Act. I hope the Minister will accept the need to keep dialogue going across all the jurisdictions to make sure that best practice is shared and we all know what one another is doing. That ensures that there are no unintended consequences and is beneficial and positive.
As has been said, the long-term solution is obviously building better supply. It is astonishingly disappointing to me that we will be spending public money to the tune of £1 billion on discretionary housing payments. That is an enormous sum of money to shore up a system that is failing. The system is failing because there is no supply, particularly in relation to supported accommodation and social rented accommodation at affordable levels.
I have spent most of my public life looking at social security and social policy areas and there is one thing I am sure about. Low-income households are more robust and resilient than we imagine—the noble Lord, Lord Bird, is a good example of this perhaps. They can deal with a £5 cut here or there in innovative ways, but what they cannot do is survive homelessness—the family unit has nothing around which to build security and to develop. We all know that children learn to be poor and insecure by the time they are three—although the noble Lord, Lord Bird, survived until he was five. Addressing the needs of the homeless community is therefore a very serious issue. It is not only in their interests but in the national interest that we pass this Bill and get it on the statute book with all due speed.
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