As with all impact assessments, it is an estimate. We looked at the Help to Buy ISA, which is similar to the lifetime ISA in that it gives a 25% bonus to support people to buy a first home. That has not led to a surge in opt-outs. Instead, opt-out rates for automatic enrolment are still much lower than the Government expected, as several noble Lords said; they are currently 9%. The overall programme assumption was, I understand, 28%. We will of course regularly monitor the lifetime ISA going forward to make sure that it is achieving its aim—as the noble Baroness, Lady Greengross, suggested, and indeed as we do with all important policy areas. But I am not convinced, to respond to the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, that we need a formal annual review.
The noble Baroness, Lady Greengross, asked how many people using Help to Save were eligible for automatic enrolment. We set out our expectations of take-up of Help to Save. I am afraid that, as with all forecasts, there is uncertainty, so at this stage we are not able to say how many of these people will also be eligible for automatic enrolment.
Several noble Lords talked about guidance and communication. The Government announced in October 2016 that they plan to replace the three government-sponsored financial guidance providers—the Money Advice Service, the Pensions Advisory Service and Pension Wise—with a new, single financial guidance body, which I welcome. Through creating a single body we intend to make it as easy as possible for
consumers to access the help they need to get all their financial questions answered. For example, this could be through helping families to balance their household budget or for individuals considering their options in retirement. Consultation on the precise design of the single guidance body is currently live and closes on 13 February. MAS, TPAS and Pension Wise will continue to provide guidance to consumers until the new body goes live.
The noble Baroness, Lady Drake, raised the issue of pensions tax relief, as did other noble Lords. Our responses to the Treasury’s pensions tax consultation indicated that there was no clear consensus for reform and, therefore, that it was not the right time to undertake fundamental reform to the pensions tax system. But obviously the Government have moved, with the Bill, to encourage younger people to save through the lifetime ISA—and that was a key theme that came out of the consultation.
The noble Baroness, Lady Drake, raised the question of mis-selling risk, which was also a concern of my noble friend Lady Altmann. I agree that it is very important for individuals to have clear information on their products. That is why we will publish factual information about the lifetime ISA on GOV.UK, as well as working with the Money Advice Service and its successor to ensure that they make appropriate and impartial information available. As was said, it is the independent Financial Conduct Authority’s role to regulate account providers, including how they sell a product to consumers. It is currently consulting on the approach and has set out its proposals.
Having said all of that, the communication issue has come up under several different headings. If noble Lords would find it helpful, I will undertake to look through Hansard at the various points that have been made on communication and set out in a letter to noble Lords who have taken part in this debate just what our plans are. That will enable me, for example, to check with the FCA about its current plans and take account of any consultation responses that may already be available. We need to make sure that at the point of sale providers are transparent about risks, including any potential early withdrawal charge and with information on automatic enrolment. That theme came through from almost all noble Lords who spoke. It is a very important area. As has been said, this is a Money Bill, but that does not mean that we cannot set out how we see these things being properly communicated.
The noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, questioned the impact assessment. I understand, from checking with the experts, that it is correct. I was glad that he raised housing because it is an important area. The OBR has noted that the effect of the lifetime ISA on house prices is highly uncertain and its predicted impact is significantly smaller than overall house price movements. As we know, a number of factors can affect house prices, which will be subject to change in future years. For example, we are taking steps to boost housing supply. Following the announcement of £5.3 billion additional investment in housing in the Autumn Statement, we expect to double our annual capital spending on housing during this Parliament. We will publish a housing White Paper shortly, which I hope
will address some of the supply issues the noble Lord raised and allow this House to have further exchanges on this incredibly important issue for the future of our economy and our industrial strategy. I believe the lifetime ISA is one way to make sure that first-time buyers have the support they need to get on to the housing ladder.
I will address a number of technical points raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Drake. She asked whether the Government would commit to a 50% participation rate for Help to Save. The Government are not setting any specific target around take-up of Help to Save because we want opening an account to be an active decision by those who feel Help to Save is right for them. However, we will continue to work with the account provider and other interested parties to ensure that people are made aware of the scheme and receive the right support and guidance.
The noble Lord, Lord McKenzie, talked about eligibility for the under-25s. A person aged under 25 is eligible for working tax credit if they work a minimum of 16 hours a week and have a child or a disability—I am learning a lot from this debate. Our intention is to passport people into eligibility for Help to Save. This is a well-established way of targeting support at people on lower incomes. Importantly, it removes the need for people to complete a further means test to prove that they are eligible, which we know could deter people from opening accounts.