My Lords, in view of the time, I shall try to truncate my comments. The amendment would give the National Assembly as of right a proportion of VAT revenues and so give Wales the same tax power in this regard as enjoyed by Scotland. It would also open the possibility, post Brexit, for some variation of VAT levels in Wales to help provide the cash stream needed to service capital investment programmes, as discussed earlier in Committee.
It is widely acknowledged, by the Institute of Welsh Affairs and others, that devolution of public spending responsibilities should be accompanied by the assignment of significant own sources of revenue. Wales’s funding framework has been highly unusual from an international perspective: there are not many Governments in the world with significant legislative and spending powers who do not also have a correspondingly important
responsibility for raising tax revenues. If the UK Government are serious about securing a lasting devolution settlement for Wales, the devolution of VAT should be considered as part of a package of devolved fiscal powers.
The Scotland Act 2016 stated that revenues from the first 10 percentage points of the standard VAT rate would be devolved by 2019-20. The current UK VAT rate is 20%, so half of all the VAT raised in Scotland will be kept in Scotland. A recent article published by the Wales Governance Centre states that:
“Welsh VAT revenues been far more buoyant than other major taxes, such that VAT has become the largest source of revenue in Wales (in contrast to the rest of the UK and Scotland, where income tax remains the largest source)”.
The report entitled Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales 2016 concluded that around £5.2 billion was raised in VAT revenue in Wales in 2014-15. With a similar deal to Scotland, around £2.6 billion would be assigned to the Welsh Government. There would of course be an offset from the Barnett block for however long that remains in its obsolete and unfair current format. Based on the report’s figures, it would mean that more than a third of total devolved expenditure would be financed by devolved and assigned taxes, up from 21% with currently proposed devolution.
I hope that the House will agree that this fiscal lever is essential to secure the success of the Welsh economy. I beg to move.