Before I start, I shall say that have a number of questions. They relate to the impact assessment and I suppose that being confronted by a 21-page impact assessment full of statements and figures constitutes a challenge. I am not expecting answers today to the questions, some of which are highly detailed, so there is no need for any frantic activity behind the Minister. I am more than willing to have a response subsequent to this meeting, if she would like to do it that way.
I also note with interest in the impact assessment the statement of fact that this measure seeks to increase the EAPC sales,
“by harmonising GB legal standards for EAPCs with European standards”.
In some parts of the House that kind of statement would be dynamite to those with a certain lack of enthusiasm for the EU. Perhaps that is why this item is being discussed at 10 minutes to six in the Moses Room, when attendance might be fairly limited, rather than in another environment that might have provoked a few more people to turn up. I make that comment somewhat facetiously, bearing in mind the commitment to harmonising with EU standards.
The Minister has set out that to be currently classified as an EAPC—an electrically assisted pedal cycle—in this country the vehicle has to comply with a number of requirements and has set out the changes. As she said, those requirements are that: the continuous rated power of the motor must not exceed 200 watts for standard bicycles and 250 watts for tandems and tricycles; the electrical assistance must cut off when the vehicle reaches 15 mph; and the unladen weight must not exceed 40 kilograms for standard bicycles and 60 kilograms for tandems and tricycles. The changes which this order makes to bring us into line with European standards are that: the maximum motor power for standard bikes is increased to 250 watts; the electronically assisted cut-off speed is amended to 15.5 mph; all the weight limits are removed; and vehicles with more than three wheels are permitted.
Although the impact assessment tells us that there will be an anticipated increase in bike sales by 7,850 units to 20,400 by 2024, it does not really explain which of the changes that will be made by this order will be driving this increase. Is it the increase from 15 to 15.5 mph, which does not appear significant? Is it the increase in the maximum motor power for standard bicycles from 200 to 250 watts? Is it—as I
think my noble friend Lord Campbell-Savours suggested—the removal of the weight limits? Or is it the change permitting vehicles with more than three wheels?
How many vehicles with more than three wheels do the Government anticipate will appear on our roads as a result of this order? If the weight limits are to be removed, could the Minister confirm that these are unladen weights, which is what I understand to be the position? I know the Minister addressed this point in her opening comments about not expecting anybody to go stupid over the weight limits because of the fact that the bike would not be able to move if it got above a certain weight, but is there any weight beyond which an EAPC—bicycle, tandem, tricycle or vehicle with more than three wheels—becomes potentially unsafe for the driver or for other road users? Or is the Government’s view that that level would only be reached in a situation where you could not actually pedal the bicycle, tandem or tricycle in any case and therefore it is an irrelevant consideration?
On safety, page 1 of the impact assessment states that the objective is “to simplify and reduce” legislation,
“whilst maintaining or improving safety standards”.
Can the Minister say a little more about how the order will actually improve safety standards?
The impact assessment also states on page 1 that,
“the most commonly produced EU bicycles cannot be used in the UK without road tax and a driving licence”.
Since the order will change that situation, could the Minister say what the impact of the order will be on the UK bicycle manufacturing industry, as opposed to the retail sector, when the most commonly used EU bicycles can be used in the UK without having to pay road tax or have a driving licence? My understanding is that the UK bicycle manufacturing sector is stated in the impact assessment to be valued at, I think, just over £50 million. It is very small in that sense. Is it not possible that this order and the changes it incorporates will be something of a blow to what is left of the UK bicycle manufacturing sector? Is that why the impact assessment does not address that issue, saying in paragraph 5.8 that it,
“concentrates solely on the benefits to the retail sector from increased sales of EAPCs”?
The impact assessment tells us on page 3, although the Explanatory Memorandum does not, that:
“The current GB Regulations define an EAPC”,
as including a requirement—which I think comes on to a point that my noble friend has been making—that:
“It must be fitted with pedals by means of which it is capable of being propelled”.
Could the Minister confirm that that requirement is not being deleted by the order we are discussing at the moment?
Page 5 of the impact assessment states, at paragraph 5.1, that as,
“no evidence has been provided or otherwise identified that suggests any significant quantifiable additional safety (accident/casualty) or other costs, the impact assessment assumes negligible costs”.
However, since the impact assessment holds out the prospect of a significant increase in EAPC sales, is it
the contention that users of EAPCs are less likely—or no more likely—to suffer fatalities, or serious or slight injuries, than users of cars or trucks engaged in similar trips?
Paragraph 5.22 states:
“The accident benefits from reduced car use are ignored as any potential costs from increased accidents are not included in the earlier section for bikes”.
What is the evidence that these two figures would cancel each other out, as this would appear to be the justification for making that statement?
The order aligns the UK with the EU 250 watt maximum motor power limit. Does it also mean that in future in the UK, drivers of EAPC vehicles with engines of between 201 and 250 watts will no longer have to undertake compulsory basic training or wear helmets? If that is the case—I may well be wrong—will the Minister point out where in the documentation it says that, and what the impact would be on safety? Could she also say if any people in this country currently drive EAPC vehicles of between 201 watts and 250 watts with the current regulations in force? What she has been saying is that the current regulations on the tax and driving licence act as a deterrent to anyone driving vehicles of between 201 watts and 250 watts.
In paragraph 5.2, the impact assessment refers to higher sales of EAPC bicycles having the potential to displace journeys by bus. I do not want to exaggerate this because I appreciate that we are talking about relatively small numbers, but is there any significant estimated impact of this on bus revenue, or is it deemed to be so negligible as to be—I say this in the best spirit—not worth bothering about? If there is going to be this transfer from bus travel to bike travel, how would that contribute to the declared objective set out in the impact assessment, to which I have already referred, of,
“maintaining or improving safety standards”?
I will not raise the next issue regarding a gap in the wording of the impact assessment. I will forget that for the moment.
Paragraph 5.7 of the impact assessment states that the direct benefits to business are assumed to be,
“increased profits from increased bike sales”.
Is that a net figure that also reflects any adverse impact on car or van sales, since the documentation clearly envisages a transfer of journeys from car, van and, indeed, bus as a result of this order?
If I read it correctly, the impact assessment claims benefits from the order of between £97 million and £290 million over a 10-year period to 2024. Having a gap of nearly £200 million from benefits that, at a maximum, are less than £300 million does not, frankly, inspire confidence in the likely impact of this order.
The impact assessment on page 2 states that benefits to the cycling industry from increased bike sales are,
“likely to be displaced by reduced expenditure in other retail sectors”.
Is it the Government’s view that one will cancel out the other—and, if so, what is the evidence for that?
Paragraph 5.16 on page 9 of the impact assessment states, in respect of EAPCs:
“Evidence from online appraisal of lifecycle benefits typically provide estimates of life expectancy of 15,000 miles, equivalent to just over 6 years’ use”.
That works out at some 2,500 miles per year. Paragraph 5.19 on page 10 of the impact assessment states that,
“this impact assessment assumes EAPC users cycle 2,392 kms per year”.
That is considerably less than the 2,500 miles per year figure quoted in paragraph 5.16 of the impact assessment. Why are the figures so different—unless they are not comparable, which may well be the case? But if they are not comparable—if I am not comparing like with like—perhaps I may have a response, albeit at some later stage, on what different considerations they are reflecting.
6 pm