My Lords, this debate has proved far more interesting than many would have expected. A number of points have become politically clear. One is the central point made in his magisterial speech by the noble Lord, Lord Armstrong of Ilminster, whose conclusion was that this Bill could almost be described as pointless. He was pretty forensic in describing his reasoning; namely, that whoever is Prime Minister after the next election will not in practice be constrained either way by this Bill.
Presumably, if it is a Conservative Prime Minister—although there are all sorts of variations of the configuration—you can write the script. There might well be some sort of timetable of negotiation leading up to a referendum. However, if it is a timetable that looks like blackmail, saying to Angela Merkel and Mr Hollande, “I have got only 18 months to come back with the goods, you must help me”, is that really the best sort of diplomacy? Other colleagues have put it in terms of an unrealistic, artificial timetable but I would like to put it in terms of the personal relationships between the party leaders.
I would like to put this in the context that was going through my mind as I was listening to the noble Lord, Lord Jay of Ewelme. It is now exactly 100 years since the misunderstandings—let us put it that way—which led to the First World War. All these splendid books on the origins of the First World War which have been published in the past three or four months show that the total absence of a context of regular meetings between Russia, Serbia, Austro-Hungary, France, Germany and Britain had a considerable impact on the causes of this catastrophic event 100 years ago in Europe, with 50 million, or whatever, killed as a consequence. Even leading up to the declaration and mobilisation of the First World War, there were misunderstandings as to who was doing what as well as mutual suspicion between all the capitals.
Helmut Kohl said about 15 years ago to one of my colleagues, in my presence, that Germany must continue
to be locked into Europe and that it was vital that Britain was the country that ensured that Germany was always locked in. That is the relationship. The noble Lord, Lord Armstrong, will corroborate that the late Lady Thatcher did indeed have a good working relationship, as, I think, did all the other Prime Ministers from Edward Heath onwards—certainly the late Lord Callaghan and the Labour Prime Ministers who followed had good working relationships. That point seems to be given no consideration at all by those who want to play the nationalist card. Europe is not about the nationalisms of 1914; we are in a different world.
The noble Lord, Lord Howell, gave his standard speech, which is very interesting, about China and the emerging nations. However, the European economy is twice as big as China’s. Our relationship with China is mediated through the fact that it invests here because we are part of the European Union. You do not need to take my word for it, as somebody said earlier: take the word of the Chinese President; in the case of Japan, take the word of the president of Toyota; take the word of the chief executive of BMW.
It may well be, as has been said by several speakers on the other side, that it does not matter too much if there is a different balance of trade. We will have trade with the rest of Europe, yes, but with the balance of trade deficit growing and growing. At that time the pound probably would sink to the level of the euro—not the scenario envisaged by my noble friend Lord Davies of Stamford but one which could come about.
Finally, the Bill should be considered in the proper way. We cannot have a position where the famed democracy of Parliament has to be put aside when we are considering a matter of this import. I suspect that to go to the British people and say that we have brought in some legislation which has not properly gone through Parliament would be an impossible proposition in any case. I trust that this rearguard action, that we cannot have a proper examination in Committee, will dissipate.
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