My Lords, I think that, when we are making these decisions, we ought to be particularly careful about the figures that we use. We must also understand why we are decarbonising at this rate. We are doing so because the economic advice from the best economists that we have is that it is the cheapest way to decarbonise. If we were to put it off, the cost would be considerably greater, so we should do it at this pace. We can disagree with this, but to do so would be to disagree with the best advice that we have been able to get. I must say, on behalf of the climate change committee, that, if I thought that there was a cheaper, more cost-effective way of doing it, I would do that. I am proposing this and have been pressing it because it is, by all the evidence, the best thing to do.
I think that we also ought to get the figures right. The average cost of decarbonisation for payers of the dual tariff—about 80% of users—is £60 per year at the moment. I am not suggesting that £60 is an unimportant matter, but when the average payment for fuel bills is £1,300, I think that we have to be careful about overemphasising the influence of the one thing upon the other. By 2020, the amount will be £100—and the figure will rise accordingly between now and then. I do not know what the average fuel bill will be in 2020, but the idea that £100 will be the major reason why the fuel bills will be high is not true.
We must take these figures seriously. This is one of the problems that we are facing. People are using figures that are clutched from the air. I have been watching Twitter and I find that people—sometimes, I am afraid, from my own party—are busy putting out tweets saying that if we had had a decarbonisation target after 2020 it would have increased our bills by £125 per year. This is totally untrue. The figure is £20, and the climate change committee has spent a great deal of time trying to get the best and most accurate figure possible. If the TaxPayers’ Alliance or others want to pick a figure out of the air, it is not for us to quote it. We are faced with a real issue here.
If, despite evidence mounting all the time—today we have been told of the highest increase in surface temperatures that we know of for a very long time—you still do not believe that climate change is immediate and dangerous and say that it is something that can be put, if I may use the phrase, on the back burner, then of course you can always say that this is not the moment to do this. However, I must say to my noble friend, that in that case it will never be the moment to do it, because that is always true at any given moment. However, if you see that climate change is the most serious material threat to our society, as happily this Government do—and it is a common view across the House—the £60 being charged for the insurance against it seems a reasonable amount.
There is an argument, although it is not for the climate change committee to make it, that we might change where the money comes from. However, I do not think that there is an argument to say that we should not be spending the money. Therefore I think that we ought to be very careful when we are having these discussions that we do not talk in a way that distorts the argument, either by the size of the price that we claim or by forgetting that most people’s heating does not come from electricity—it comes from gas and other sources—and therefore they are not paying this. Neither ought we to forget that other countries are doing more than we are. Germany is doing more than we are and much of Europe is doing at least as much, as we can see by looking at the Danes. The rest of the world is moving in this direction in a very serious manner; whether it is today’s announcement from Mexico or the changes in China, we can see that this is happening all around the world. It is not that Britain is doing better than others or is out of step, but that we are doing what the world is doing, because the world recognises the threat. That means that we have to be very considerate about the condition and situation of vulnerable people.
I am not sure that these are the right amendments, but I have listened very carefully to what has been said about introducing this measure into the Bill in a more pronounced way. I think that the Government have probably got it about right, but I have listened with some care. However, it does not help the argument to use the poor as an argument against fighting climate change, because the people who will suffer most from climate change are the poor throughout the world—not just here but in Bangladesh, the Pacific, India and elsewhere. I find this argument about the poor really very upsetting.
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