My Lords, I will speak to the amendments in my name. I am grateful to my noble friend Lord Teverson and the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, for their amendments and to all those who have contributed to this debate. I remind the House of the policy intent behind the EPS. It is to ensure that no new coal-fired power station is built without CCS, and that it is done in a way that does not undermine the investment we will need in gas generation to keep the lights on at a reasonable cost to consumers.
Amendment 72 seeks to shorten the grandfathering period of the EPS from the end of 2044 to 2029. This shortening by some 15 years will increase uncertainty for gas investors. Without this certainty, we risk deterring or increasing the cost of new gas investments, with the obvious potential consequences for security of supply and costs to consumers. I recognise that 2044 is a long way off but this date is derived from what investors tell us is required. Under the current provisions, new gas plants consented in the later part of this decade and built in the early 2020s would have a little over 20 years of certainty in respect of how the EPS will apply to those assets. That is the amount of time that investors tell us is required to pay back all debt and see a return on equity in the project. In other words, with grandfathering, the EPS is not a barrier to financing new gas generation plants.
Noble Lords may be concerned that we may be locking in high levels of unabated gas generation well
into the future that could risk achieving our legally binding 2050 carbon emissions target. I reassure noble Lords that the other measures under our market reforms will ensure that this is not the case and, therefore, that the EPS is consistent with our 2050 decarbonisation target. This is because unabated gas generation will be increasingly displaced by low-carbon generation over time. The Government set out clearly in our gas generation strategy how we expect gas plants’ load factors to decline as low carbon comes on to the system, and how in the very long term we expect it to be economically attractive for gas plants to retrofit carbon capture and storage equipment. Grandfathering the EPS until 2044 will not prevent this from happening. Grandfathering to just 2029 would risk deterring or increasing the cost of the investment in the new gas plants that we need to be built up to 2030.
I turn to Amendments 71 and 73. The approach proposed by my noble friend is very close to the one that we have already adopted. The Government have already committed to a regular three-yearly review of the EPS. The EPS will also be reviewed as part of the statutory review of EMR under Clause 58 of the Bill. The amendments would enable the statutory rate of emissions and the period for which it will apply to be revised very quickly following a review by way of an order. This is an approach that the Government have considered but have concerns about. The ability to revise the EPS very quickly could result in a specific investment hiatus in the run up to a review, due to the uncertainty that the review process introduces. Pre-development costs for power projects can run into tens of millions of pounds, so investors will be very aware of the risk that a quickly implemented decision to revise the EPS could render a project economically unviable, with the financial loss that could result.
That is why we have taken the approach that any future changes to the EPS should be by way of primary legislation. Combined with the three-year period between reviews, this will help to ensure that projects that are already in the planning system—by that stage having already had significant financial commitment—are able to complete that process before any changes to the EPS that would affect their project come into force. However, I recognise the spirit in which my noble friend has brought this amendment and the helpful intent to bring greater certainty to the review process and the process for making any future changes to the EPS. I will reflect on his suggestions with a view to how we might underpin his concerns without creating any unnecessary investment hiatus.
Turning to Amendment 74, the Government’s goal is an orderly transition away from coal to lower-carbon fuels over time in a way which does not create unnecessary costs for consumers. While we do not expect large numbers of coal plants to invest in clean-up equipment, a very small number of our more efficient plant may wish to do so. This amendment is very likely to deter that investment. In this scenario, more coal stations would have their operation constrained, and there could be more stations closing around the end of the decade than might otherwise be the case. This could require more gas plant to be built earlier to fill the gap at greater cost—ultimately, to consumers. Why should
we close down our options in this way now when it could put our security of supply at risk and significantly increase costs to consumers? A small number of cleaned-up coal plants could provide greater diversity and bring additional resilience to the electricity system in the coming years, helping to ride any bumps in the road, given the significant investment challenge that we face.
I have also considered carefully the argument that by taking action to drive the closure of all of our coal power stations, we would be giving certainty to investors in new gas generation. While this may be conceptually true, it could also be true to say that you would give certainty to investors in electric cars if you banned all petrol vehicles, but that does not mean it would be a prudent or cost-effective thing to do.