I have never spoken against a Labour amendment in my 28 years in this House, but I propose to do so today because I am troubled by this misguided amendment. I should make it clear I am not a climate-change denier—an offensive word, from which I have suffered. I am a questioner. I accept that the globe is warming mildly, 0.8% of 1 degree in 131 years, although the surface stopped warming 17 years ago. I accept that the warming is almost certainly linked to carbon emissions and human activity, and I support curbing those emissions in a measured way. The questions that concern me are how much warming will happen, how damaging it will be, how we react in our policies, and how sensitive the climate is to carbon emissions. I note that this century carbon emissions have rocketed, but there has been no further warming of the surface of the globe.
As regards extreme weather, I say to my noble friend Lord Smith, for whom I have the greatest respect and affection, that I believe the IPCC said it could find no evidence that extreme weather was occurring globally. I am troubled from a Labour position—not a denier position—that reactive policy-making, as is the case with this amendment, is not justified by the evidence, and I am troubled by the consequences of that for ordinary people. These policies hurt the poor, given rocketing energy prices, although there seems to be argument about how much the relevant figure will be. The noble Lord, Lord Turner, tried to set it very low. Last week I received an answer from the Department of Energy and Climate Change that put a figure of 9% on green taxes. However, they will increase significantly by 2020. The increases may not look much to noble Lords but will be painful for ordinary people. Such
increases will hurt jobs as high energy costs make industry uncompetitive. Indeed, Grangemouth stated that one of its reasons for being unviable was the high cost of energy. Not much notice has been taken of the fact that its rescue plan contained a proposal to build a terminal to import shale gas from the United States. It is sad that it has to import it from the United States. The greens, of course, oppose shale gas.
I oppose the amendment because it entrenches the rapid switch to inefficient and grossly expensive renewable energy sources. I understand that those of a strong green faith—and we are frequently dealing with faith—support this amendment. As has been made clear, their main priority is the rapid decarbonisation of our planet regardless of the costs. However, as a Labour person, I believe that other priorities should be balanced with that—not against it—such as protecting jobs and protecting the public from fuel poverty. Under recent green energy policies, but not wholly because of them, fuel poverty threatens to rise, affecting more than 6 million people. The figure will rise further if these renewables policies are imposed to the extent intended.
I listened to the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, and read the briefing from my Front Bench. I question at least three of its main arguments. The first is that gas prices will remain very high and so renewables will not seem expensive by comparison. However, we simply do not know what energy prices will be. I do not share the certainty of the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, in that regard. In 1974, I was in No. 10 when we were hit by a 400% increase in energy prices which no one had forecast. In the 1980s, in the City I managed top energy analysts and they did not know what would happen with energy prices, and, of course, firms such as Shell and Centrica spend billions of pounds hedging because they do not know either.
It is a mistake to do as is proposed in this amendment and further lock in the commitment to the massive use of renewables at high prices with no escape if, for instance, gas prices halve. I do not know what will happen. I do not think that those who have put their name to this amendment know either although they claim to. It is possible that shale development could reduce gas prices, as it has in the United States. I am not convinced by the opening dismissal of that on the basis that shale prices in America might increase in time, because shale supply will increase greatly throughout the world. However, most greens oppose shale, perhaps because if we had shale we would not need the inefficient and expensive windmills which blight our countryside.
5.15 pm
The second assertion I question is that renewable prices will fall in the medium term because greater efficiency will cut energy use. That may be but, again, we do not know. I hope so, but it is speculation. The Green Deal to increase efficiency of use, which I support broadly—though not in all of its implementation—is a testing point. However, according to the department, only 54 households have signed up so far: not much increased efficiency of use there. We need more flexibility in our approach and, although I have rarely supported the proposals of a Conservative Government, the Government are actually right on this.
A third disputable assertion is that we must commit to huge renewable investments now, with tight targets and huge subsidies. It has been quoted that business is very keen to have this. Of course they are keen: I have floods of leaflets through my door asking me to invest in these green projects. As they say, this is a bonanza; we are guaranteed an annuity of a huge real return. However, who pays for these huge subsidies? I can tell you, and you know. If we stick to the current regressive consumer subsidies through energy bills, it is customers—especially the poor—who pay. Or, if we switch to taxation and debt to pay them, it is the taxpayer and a higher deficit pay. Neither of those courses is particularly attractive to me, as a Labour person.
As it often is with extreme green climate policies, the price paid, either way, comes soon, higher and painfully while the alleged benefits, some of which may happen, are vague, unquantifiable and distant. An additional worry is that the Labour Party is now focusing successfully on cutting the cost of living and even imposing an energy price freeze. The amendment will, most probably, raise the cost of living and is in conflict with a future energy price freeze.
I may be dim, and I may not have been in the Labour Party for long enough to understand how it appreciates these things—it is 60 years this month since I joined—but the amendment is, surely, incompatible with our main policies. I suspect the electorate will see through it. I cannot see why I, as a Labour person, should support the amendment: it hits jobs and is likely to increase fuel poverty. Politically, I am aware that yesterday’s big poll showed that 60% of the public oppose green taxes so I am not sure that is a great flag to wave before the next election. The poor should not pay the price of green dreams.