My Lords, I begin by declaring an interest as a director of two small companies with interests in energy efficiency and energy from waste, GEO and 2OC, and as honorary president of the Carbon Capture and Storage Association. As indicated in the register of interests, I occasionally advise other bodies on matters relating to energy, water and environment.
Other noble Lords have longer memories than I, but I can recall no other Bill for which the external atmosphere has changed so dramatically during its passage through the House. For that reason, a few introductory remarks that range more widely than normal may be appropriate and may answer questions that could be raised by noble Lords later.
The price rises that are causing so much concern today are, in part, attributable to the increase in the world price of gas. Whether we like it or not, we can expect the 20-year ragged upward trend of fossil fuel prices to continue, driven by steadily increasing world demand and partly because reserves and oil are becoming more expensive to extract. Temporary market gluts apart, we have to expect carbon-based energy systems to become progressively more expensive relative to the other items on which we spend our money.
However, looking at today’s low price of natural gas in the United States, we might ask whether we should not completely rethink our energy strategy in the light of possible US shale gas resource. Shale gas appears to be abundant and carries only half the environmental penalty of coal. I answer in the following way. It is widely recognised within the industry that the current low price of shale gas in the US results from overproduction and cannot be sustained. For the large US shale gas resource to become an economically exploitable reserve, the price will need to be around three times what it is today. The fact is that extracting gas from shale requires more energy and is more expensive than producing gas by conventional means. Either most of the gas in US shale will not be produced or its price will be much higher than today.
These considerations apply to the UK as well, except that the operational conditions here are likely to be tougher than in the US. If the UK shale gas resource is exploited, its main consequence would be a greater degree of resource independence rather than lower prices. That said, in almost any realistic scenario, gas has an important role to play in the UK energy supply for some decades to come, particularly if cost-effective carbon capture and storage technology is developed. The bottom line is that shale gas does not provide a “get out of jail free” energy card for the UK and does not provide a reason for a major rethink of energy policy or for changing the thrust of the Bill.
The original thinking behind the Bill is correct; namely, that it is prudent to spend more in the short term to build a strategic infrastructure that will substantially decarbonise our economy and reduce our exposure to rises in the cost of fossil fuels, which are likely to remain a continuing political concern. For reasons so well known that I will not rehearse them here, we need this Bill urgently so that the first steps in building the new infrastructure can be taken soon and
in the right direction. The two defining characteristics of energy infrastructure are the long timescales and the high costs. With sufficient forethought and consistency of policy, both can be reduced. That is what the amendment seeks to achieve. As the Bill stands, important decisions on timing are deferred until at least after the next election, and who knows what other distracting pressures on government time there will be then. This is our opportunity and we should seize it.
The amendment would require the Government to settle next year the outlines of a measured approach to a longer-term UK energy strategy, taking into account the advice of the Committee on Climate Change. Once the bare bones of the strategy and above all its timescale are clear, industry can begin to plan. It is not just major companies that are involved. It is sometimes forgotten that the nominal times taken to extend the grid or build a new power station depend on essential components being available when they are needed. This means having a robust and specialised supply chain, which itself can take a number of years to establish. Without such a supply chain, major components that are urgently needed will probably have to be imported at high cost and with no benefit to the UK economy. More clarity now will help UK jobs and the manufacturing industries.
Major infrastructure investment also needs funds. Investors have the choice of where to put their funds and they will not put their money into a decarbonised energy infrastructure unless they see the Government committed not just by good intentions, but by the wording of the Bill. Investment is about risk; and the lower the perceived risk, the better terms we may expect to obtain. Here I must take the Government to task. At a time when investment in energy utilities in Europe has rarely looked less attractive, the Government appear to have gone out of their way to weaken confidence further. Ministers in departments closely involved with this Bill have on at least five occasions made statements that appear to undermine its main decarbonisation rationale. To make matters worse, the Government now seem to have adopted the language of their critics by describing as “green taxes” those elements of consumer charges that are specifically designated to reduce costs by improving energy efficiency and developing better long-term infrastructure.
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The best way for the Government to recover the situation is to accept the amendment today as a reaffirmation of their commitment. The amendment will not guarantee that investment is forthcoming, but it will certainly help. Today, I have said a little about the environmental objectives of the Bill. These are undoubtedly important but, for reasons that I have given, the arguments for decarbonising—energy security and minimising energy costs—all point in the same direction. Others have asked about possible damage to our economy if we are the only country embarking on a decarbonisation strategy now. We are not alone. Around 50 other countries have either enacted or are working on improved energy efficiency and decarbonisation legislation. The Government are making special provisions for those industries which might be particularly disadvantaged by new legislation.
The amendments are about getting on with the job and setting milestones for ordered progress to a new energy structure. They are specifically about setting a power-decarbonisation milestone for 2030. The milestone should be set, if for no other reason than because, the sooner it is set, the less expensive it will be to achieve the energy security and decarbonisation that we seek. Accepting the amendments is the “no regrets” course. Should some miraculous, game-changing new technology appear, or some other unforeseen circumstance arise, the Bill provides Ministers with ways of dealing with the unexpected. There is simply no reason not to get on with the job that has to be done and every reason for doing it now. The amended Bill would be good for jobs, for UK industry, for investors and for the environment. I beg to move.