My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, for his amendment and all noble Lords who have taken part in this short but important debate. It gives me an opportunity to lay out the Government’s objectives for reform throughout the development of the EMR proposals. These objectives have been set out in the published documents, from our White Paper in July 2011 and within Clause 5, to reflect our aims of reform. This does not mean that other aims, such as minimising fuel poverty, are not important. I agree with noble Lords that this area is incredibly important to us all. As outlined in Clause 5(2)(d), the Secretary of State will have regard to the likely cost of electricity to consumers. This means all consumers, including the fuel poor.
Our analysis suggests that, as a result of EMR, household electricity bills will be on average around 9%, or £63, lower per year over the period 2016 to 2030, relative to what they would have been if decarbonisation were achieved through existing policy instruments. The impact of EMR will be to reduce fuel poverty compared to what it would have been without those policies in place.
However, we should not be complacent. With or without EMR, electricity prices are likely to increase over time due to rising fossil fuel prices and the rising cost of carbon. This is why we have in place a strong package of measures to support low-income and vulnerable households with their energy costs. The energy company obligation ensures that help goes to low-income and vulnerable households to enable them
to heat their homes more affordably on a long-term basis. Through the affordable warmth and carbon-saving communities obligations, we anticipate that support should reach around 230,000 low-income households each year. In addition, this winter around 2 million households will get help under the warm home discount scheme, including over 1 million of the poorest pensioners, who will receive £135 off their electricity bill.
In the last financial year, winter fuel payments helped over 12.5 million older people in over 9 million households with their fuel bills, providing between £100 and £300 tax-free to help pay for heating bills. During the same period, 5.8 million cold weather payments were made, targeted at those households that are most vulnerable to the cold. This Government are committed to helping the fuel poor, now and in the future. That is why earlier this year I proposed amendments to the Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act, to put in place a new, rigorous and flexible framework for measuring the Government’s progress in tackling fuel poverty in England. As we move forward with ensuring a safe low-carbon future we must be absolutely sure that we do not leave the fuel poor behind.
The noble Lord, Lord Whitty, mentioned the Prime Minister’s announcements last week on green taxes and the review of their impact on the fuel poor. The Government are looking at how to get people’s energy bills as low as possible to help the very families to which the noble Lord refers. We are already increasing competition by bringing new players into the market to offer consumers real choice. The most vulnerable are getting direct help with their bills this winter. We will continue this work to make sure that consumers get a better deal. No one is talking about changing support for large-scale renewables or feed-in tariffs. We want to make sure that those who need help get help. I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, finds my explanation reassuring and on that basis will withdraw his amendment.