My Lords, I shall refer to the report of the Public Service and Demographic Change Committee. Members of the House who have not read the report should do so because it is a fascinating document. It is probably one of the best documents to come out of the House of Lords for many years. On the question of Dilnot, to which I am opposed but I shall explain that later on in the Bill, paragraph 193 states:
“The major gainers will be the relatively better-off, who will be protected from depleting their housing assets”.
In other words, potentially we will be spending in the longer term money that could have been raised in taxation. We are losing that revenue at a time when the same report refers to the deteriorating ability of the state to help people who are in need of medical services. It refers to the fact that the number of people aged over 75 is expected grow from 5.4 million in 2015 to 8.8 million in 2035. It refers to the fact that the demand for hospital and community service spending by those aged 75 and over is, in general, more than three times the demand from those aged between 30 and 40.
We have higher demands from the elderly, more people falling into the groups that are liable to want the services historically provided by local authorities and the state, and yet, at the same time, with these Dilnot proposals, over a period of time we will be handing back money to the taxpayer to which, in my view, the taxpayer has no right.
The report says that the number of people in England with three or more long-term conditions is predicted to grow from 1.9 million in 2008 to 2.9 million by 2018. It is forecast that the number of people in England and Wales aged 65 and over with dementia—we all know the care requirements of people with dementia—or moderate or severe cognitive impairment will increase by over 80% between 2010 and 2032 to 1.96 million. The report goes on to say that it is estimated that by 2022 the number of people in England aged 65 and over with some disability will increase by 40% to 3.3 million.
As I understand the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Best, he is simply saying, “Hang on a minute, before we start spending money, we should take stock of what is available in the longer term. Can the state afford to pay all the bills that are to come? Has that work been done?”. I hope that the noble Earl will seek to give the Committee those assurances because if the work has not been done and the predictions of some have not been taken into account, it may well be that the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Best, is relevant. Let us defer much of this expenditure until we have sorted out the budgeting.