At the outset, may I join in paying tribute to the outgoing shadow Secretary of State, the hon. Member for Hove (Peter Kyle), and in welcoming to his new role the right hon. Member for Leeds Central (Hilary Benn)? We are going to miss him on the UK Trade and Business Commission, on which he has had a very keen interest in recent years in Northern Ireland and the fallout on it from Brexit, which has had major ripple effects through our politics—not least, as we can hear this evening, on the subject of this debate.
It is six weeks on from Second Reading and it is fair to say that the situation in our politics has not improved. There is no sign of any return to devolution; indeed, the
response from the right hon. Member for East Antrim (Sammy Wilson) to the Minister of State illustrates the lack of realism about the choices that face us collectively in Northern Ireland, and the choices that face Unionism in ensuring that Northern Ireland works for everyone. That is in everyone’s interest, not least the interest of Unionists.
With the public finances, I would argue that the situation is indeed much worse than it was six weeks ago, because the Northern Ireland budget is on an unsustainable trajectory. The budget that was set, as others have said, was not sufficient—it was inadequate—but there is a second layer to this, because the guidance to civil servants in the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022 does not allow them to take the decisions necessary to live within the measly budget that has been granted.
As the hon. Member for Belfast East (Gavin Robinson) has said, we already have a situation where it is projected that Northern Ireland will overspend by at least £500 million, which is greater than the overspend from the last financial year. That is more than £500 million of public pay pressures before Northern Ireland can even have parity with the settlements that have taken place elsewhere in the United Kingdom. Something is going to have to give. Either an Executive come in with a financial package and can begin to address some of those pressures, or the Government are essentially going to take it on the chin and accept that Northern Ireland will overspend.
That begs the question of what will happen with that overspend in future years. Will it be an albatross around our neck for years to come? Will people be expected to make cuts, or will the Government make cuts in-year to try to balance the budget? I would suggest that trying to do that in-year is now impossible, not least because so much of our budget is linked to salaries. We would lose people, and even if we did we would have to have redundancy payments for them. The only way anyone could possibly balance the budget at this stage is through stopping services completely, which is utterly inconceivable and untenable.
The point has been made that the budget situation is bad and will always be bad, and that having an Executive does not make any difference in that regard. I am not suggesting for one minute that a restored Executive will be a silver bullet, but I suggest to my colleagues who perhaps are dismissing the relevance of devolution at this point that every single stakeholder, when they are asked to comment on the budget crisis, stands up and says, “We want to see an Executive in place.” Whether we are talking about healthcare professionals or people who work in the education sector, the business community or the voluntary community sector, all of them are saying with one voice, “While it is no magic solution, we do want to see the Executive back in place.”
That reference to a restored Executive leads me on neatly to the point I really want to stress regarding a financial package: we need to see a twin-pronged approach to addressing Northern Ireland’s financial needs. Of course we need to address the lack of financial parity and the fact that Northern Ireland is not funded based
on need. There is a structural problem of underfunding there, so things are not more generous in Northern Ireland than elsewhere.
I want to pick up on the comments made by the Secretary of State at the weekend to the British-Irish Association in Oxford. The conference is held under Chatham House rules, but I want to comment on what is in the public domain, as released by the Northern Ireland Office itself. In that speech, the Secretary of State was very negative about the concept of a financial package. He talked about money being thrown at Northern Ireland and Executives having squandered financial packages in the past—and there might be an element of truth to that. He said that the Executive need to stand on their own two feet—and, again, that is a worthy aspiration. But I stress that the notion that Northern Ireland can run a balanced budget, invest in public services and drive the economy from a burning platform will never happen. We will see more cuts flowing from budget cuts, and we will end up with decline and more decline. We will end up in a downward spiral in which Northern Ireland becomes ever more dependent, and we will see activity stop and more and more young people leave. That is not the future that I hear the Government articulating in their vision for a prosperous society in Northern Ireland, but what they are doing in terms of the budget belies their very worthy aspiration.
I ask the Minister of State or the Secretary of State to clarify in winding up that something will potentially be on offer when we seek a financial package. I appreciate that that is something that the Government may wish to do solely in the context of a restored Executive rather than up front, but it is important for any financial package to be based around transformation, a proper strategic plan and a programme for government for a restored Executive. That Executive must have clear targets and milestones, and a very clear idea as to how investment can turn Northern Ireland around. That is something on which a restored Executive can work in partnership.