Of course, the important thing in the Belfast agreement was that the status of Northern Ireland is guaranteed, and that no change would be made to Northern Ireland’s status unless it is decided by the people in Northern Ireland. The people in Northern Ireland did not agree to this change of status, which makes it a vassal state of the European Union.
I do not want to labour the point—I understand that you are being very good in allowing me to emphasise this point, Madam Deputy Speaker—but if the Government wish to see Northern Ireland politicians make decisions on this, they have to respect that there is a Unionist tradition and a nationalist tradition in Northern Ireland. They cannot ignore the Unionist community’s concerns, worries, fears and opposition to the arrangements that are currently in place. Far, far worse, they cannot expect Unionists to co-operate in facilitating the implementation of those arrangements.
On the budget, the Minister has accepted that there is pressure on public services and spending in Northern Ireland. Nearly everyone who has spoken has said that it would be much better for politicians in Northern Ireland to make these decisions. The truth of the matter is that, even if the Assembly were up and running, it could not deliver the basic services that are expected in Northern Ireland and that are funded in the rest of the United Kingdom, because the Government have done two things.
First, since 1922—and the Fiscal Council has made this clear—expenditure on public services in the rest of the United Kingdom has been based on need, but the Government have ignored their own criteria and the basis on which they decide spending in the rest of the United Kingdom. The Holtham formula has not been applied in Northern Ireland. Indeed, the Fiscal Council has estimated that, as a result of need not being considered, we probably have about £322 million less expenditure available than we would have had if we had been treated on the same basis as England, Scotland and Wales.
I do not believe the Assembly’s decisions have always been good, and I do not believe there has always been the wisest use of money, but the problem has not primarily been caused by the Assembly. The Government’s decision not to base this budget on need is causing some of the issues.
Let me give an example. Education spending has gone up by 6% in the rest of the United Kingdom, but it has fallen in Northern Ireland. The overall budget for Northern Ireland this year has fallen by 3.2% in real terms, whereas the budgets for the rest of the United Kingdom went up by 1.7% in real terms. That is partly a
result of the fact that the formula used for the rest of the United Kingdom, which is based on need, has not been applied in Northern Ireland. Of course, the situation has been exacerbated by the Government’s decision to claw back the overspend by the Assembly in the last year in which it was sitting, which amounts to about £287 million. So the pressure on public services, which the Minister has lamented, is partly caused by the decisions that have been made here; they will affect the amount of money we have to spend in Northern Ireland.
I could go through the consequences for each Department, but I am not going to do so at this time of the evening. However, in education we have a real-terms cut, and in policing we are already about 1,000 officers below what the New Decade, New Approach and the Patten arrangements said we should have. That situation is going to get worse. Of course, we also now face the expenditure that is going to be necessary because of the problems in schools and the massive expenditure that will result from the data breach in the Police Service of Northern Ireland. So far, no clear indication has been given that the payment for those things will come from anything other than this overstretched budget. It would be useful for the Minister to indicate to us at the end of the debate whether the money that has to be spent on making schools good as a result of the problems with the concrete that was used, and the massive spending that there will be on fines from the Information Commissioner, the relocation of officers and the mitigation measures that have to be taken to protect officers, will still come from the overstretched budget or whether there will be an in-year consequence for that. Alternatively, will it be treated simply the same as the Barnett consequentials? Will the future Barnett consequentials be treated and ignored?
I hope that the Minister fully understands our position. We are not being truculent. We are not piqued because we have not got our way. We are simply making it clear that the ask that is being made, on the political compromises on the Union and on the financial difficulties that this budget would cause, makes it impossible for the Assembly to be up and running again.
10.57 pm