I am pleased that the Government have finally brought forward something that is at least a bit more solid than things were previously, albeit not yet very solid.
The customs White Paper says that we should refer to the future partnership agreement and to the Northern Ireland position paper, and the Northern Ireland position paper says that we should refer to the customs White Paper—this is a complete guddle! Having read all these things, not only am I still not clear about how customs will look after the UK leaves the EU, but I am not clear about how the UK Government want customs to look. The only thing that I am even vaguely clear about is that they want the process to be as close to frictionless as possible, yet they have not made any clear commitments about exactly how they expect that to work. Let us look at some of the things they have said in their various papers. With regard to Northern Ireland, for example, they want to agree
“at an early stage a time-limited interim period, linked to the speed at which implementation of the new arrangements could take place, that allows for a smooth and orderly transition.”
I might be wrong, but I think that now is an early stage. In fact, before now would have been a good time at which to make decisions and commitments, and to be clear to business about at least what the direction of travel is, but we are not there yet. We are very close to Brexit day. Brexit day is coming in March 2019—who knows at what time?—and the Government have not been clear with businesses about even their aspirations for how customs will look.
It is undoubtedly the case that we benefit from being members of the EU single market and members of the customs union. Even those who are most vociferously in favour of Brexit agree that we benefit from those things. The lower estimate of the effect on GDP due to leaving the customs union and the single market is that we will lose 3.8%. The upper estimate of the effect of the trade deals that we will strike with Japan, the USA, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India all added together is a gain of 2.37 percentage points. That is significantly less than the 3.8% that we are going to lose, so even on the best estimates, we are going to be down. The EU is pretty close to striking a trade deal with some of those countries anyway, so the benefits to us are notional rather than actual.
The single market and the customs union continue to benefit us. We are told by the independent and respected Fraser of Allander Institute that a hard Brexit could cost Scotland 5% in GDP growth. A really interesting paper by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research told us last year that if we have these free trade arrangements instead of being a member of the single market and customs union, Scotland will lose £5 billion of exports in services alone. That is very
significant. Analysis by the Scottish Government states that Scottish GDP could be around £11 billion a year lower by 2030 than would be the case if Brexit did not occur.
For those reasons and many others, we in the SNP have been clear from the beginning that we are against Brexit. We are against driving off this cliff, and we are against the incredibly hard landing that will happen when the Brexit bus hits the bottom. Despite our opposition to all these things, we are trying in this House to mitigate the impacts of Brexit. If the Government are determined to drive us off this cliff, we will try to make sure that there are fewer spiky things at the bottom for us to be impaled on.
I do not know how many Members have read the Government’s White Paper on customs, but it refers to the Government’s two proposed scenarios for the working of the future customs relationship. It also talks about contingency options for if the Government do not achieve their aspirational, bespoke deal—nobody has ever managed to get such a deal, and the Government do not really know what it is—and I think that people at home will be really interested to hear what it says. In a contingency situation, there would not be a £15 VAT-free threshold on parcels posted to people by family members, businesses and organisations in the EU. The Ways and Means motions that we are supposed to be agreeing today would allow the Government to charge VAT on gifts sent to people from the EU, which is ridiculous. If somebody gets a parcel worth less than £15 from a person in America, no VAT is payable on it, but the Government propose that such an exemption would not apply to things that came from the EU in a contingency situation. A lot of people would be pretty unhappy to discover that they will have to pay a customs charge on presents or other items that have come from the EU. Such things have not been spelled out to people or fully discussed.
I have referred to the various papers—I think we are up to four—that the Government have published on this matter. They have been pretty comprehensively savaged not just by experts, but by businesses, which are the real experts in this area. The Minister talked about roll-on/roll-off ports and the speed at which things have to come through ports. The Government have tried and failed to solve the problems with Operation Stack at Dover. Only last week, the Under-Secretary of State for Transport, the hon. Member for Hereford and South Herefordshire (Jesse Norman), put out a statement to say, “Our plans for sorting out Operation Stack are, basically, dead in the water, and we’re going to have to start again. But don’t worry: we’ll definitely have something done by March 2019 when the UK leaves the customs union and the single market.”