I rise to speak to my amendments 48 to 50, which, as we have heard from Minister, are concerned with the development of a capacity market intended to ensure that we have the range of capacity that we will require over the coming years and decades. Not to put too fine a point on it, it is intended to ensure that the lights stay on and that there is a decent margin between what people demand and what we supply.
A capacity market is a choice. It is not the only option available to secure the necessary capacity for the future. It seems to me that that choice needs to be based not just on whether the right capacity margin can be maintained. We should also ask at what cost it can be done, with what reliability and at what risk. I suggest that the choice of mechanism for maintaining capacity that is being made in the Bill fails on all those counts.
I have not invented that conclusion; the Department itself produced an impact assessment on the two choices that it had considered for securing capacity—a strategic reserve arrangement and a capacity market arrangement. Among other things, that choice is about ensuring that the amount of money that can be obtained through the sale of power into the market at times when capacity is tight stays within reasonable bounds. The impact assessment suggested that, in future, those reasonable bounds might get larger and larger. At the moment there is a maximum of about £1,000 per megawatt-hour, but it could go up as high as £10,000, in which case the consumer would be paying an enormous amount for their electricity under certain circumstances. The whole idea of keeping the costs of the capacity market under control would be completely overthrown.
The question then arises: which method best suits the need both to keep the right capacity and to keep it at a reasonable price and with reasonable reliability? Hon. Members will not be surprised that costs of the capacity market option over the period 2010 to 2030 have been assessed at two and a half times those of the strategic reserve option, and the effect on bills at 11 times higher. At first sight, that is not a good sign of the capacity market’s ability to provide a good deal for consumers.
According to the impact assessment, the reason why the Department eventually chose the capacity market idea was the entirely theoretical one that a reliability market
“limits the scope for generators to receive scarcity rents.”
However, the fact is that by introducing a capacity market and auction system in the way that we are, we will effectively provide guaranteed free money for a long period for people who are building conventional generation that provides capacity.
It may come as a surprise to some hon. Members that by introducing an auction market for capacity, we are ensuring that there is a subsidy across all aspects of energy generation, not just some. There is potential for
gaming of that arrangement. The Government will have to decide how tight the capacity is after considering what the market will look like four years ahead, and then they will have to create an auction. That choice will be necessary for the auction to take place at all, and it will determine how much money there is in the auction. If the market is gamed so that the capacity looks much tighter than it is, the amount of money will be larger and the price will be even higher.
It is no coincidence—I think that is the best way I can phrase it—that we already see the capacity market tightening. A large number of gas plants are going into either deep or shallow mothballing in advance of 2014, and the Government’s decision about what capacity will look like will be informed by that mothballing. Were I an energy company operative, I would be rather pleased about that, because I would imagine that I would do rather well out of a capacity market in the future.