Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [HL]

As Amendment 19 bears on the debate we have just had, I thought that it would be entirely appropriate to go beyond our target and deal with it so that we can tuck it out of the way. Amendment 19 is intended to make clear exactly within what context the issue of sustainability might be considered. The term ““sustainability”” has no meaning in and of itself, as we have just discussed, unless we simply define it as ““not spiralling out of control””, which I think everybody would accept as perfectly reasonable but somewhat trivial. The reason that it has no meaning in and of itself is the interaction of the public finances with what is happening in the rest of the economy. It was very useful to see the first attempt at a discussion of sustainability by the OBR in its recent report. As I pointed out in my remarks on the Autumn Statement, the definition of sustainability which the OBR presents in that report is a surplus of 2.1 per cent of GDP on the Budget. I remarked then, and I remark again, that that is completely unsustainable. It is unsustainable because a Budget surplus of 2.1 per cent, with the normal balance of payments position of the past 10 years or so of minus 1 per cent of GDP, would imply that the private sector was accumulating debt at a rate of 3.1 per cent of GDP. That is unsustainable for the private sector. I have already had some correspondence with Mr Chote on the matter. The OBR got that wrong, and it shows how difficult it is to encapsulate the notion of sustainability without referring to the general economic context. Let us take the example of Ireland, which was raised by the noble Lord, Lord Higgins. In 2007, prior to the crisis, the Irish Government were running virtually no deficit and had a debt to GDP ratio of 12 per cent, one of the lowest in the developed world. Yet they were pursuing an economic policy, with respect to what they were committing their banking sector to accumulate, that was unsustainable. If you just looked to the Government, everything looked great. They were pursuing exactly the policies that one would define as sustainable. If you took it in the context of the economic policy and the economy as a whole, it became unsustainable; just as the OBR has made the mistake in its report—I know that it will change it because it has good economists who will see the point very quickly—of pretending that a government surplus is the basis of sustainability. Let us just look at the history: Governments have not had a surplus for 200 years but they have continued perfectly well. Indeed, it is important for the Government to run a deficit; otherwise there will be a major shortage of government bonds for pension funds and the insurance industry. In fact, our financial sector would be wrecked if the Government did not run a deficit. The Government can run a relatively small deficit, which will see the level of debt to GDP stable, perhaps even falling. That would be entirely sustainable and would not spiral out of control. I suggest that introducing the phrase, "““in the light of the Government’s economic policy””," solves the Minister’s problem. It says that we will look at sustainability in the round and it creates that notion of ““in the round”” for the OBR to work on. Once again, we have managed to solve a problem for the Minister, and I hope that he recognises that a solution has been provided for him. I beg to move.