Finance Bill

The OBR receives unpublished information of different kinds and then publishes its forecasts publicly. I should have thought that the information the OBR has is of limited ongoing value. However, I have listened carefully to the points made by noble Lords. As the legislation to set up the OBR on a permanent basis goes through the House, there will be other opportunities for noble Lords to discuss the issue more fully. However, as we are concentrating today on the Finance Bill, perhaps I may move on and discuss matters which are of more direct relevance to that Bill. I have said, and will return to say again, that the new fiscal mandate will eliminate the deficit in five years and that the bulk of this reduction will come from lower spending rather than higher taxes. However, this autumn’s spending review is not only about cuts and tackling the deficit; it will be a complete re-evaluation of the Government’s role in providing public services. I take the point to which my noble friend Lord Razzall rightly drew attention in our earlier discussions about this. As to the specific point made by the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, even areas which are protected—such as the National Health Service—will be looked at to ensure that administration costs are cut. I agree with the noble Lord that that should be done; the question is where and how such administration cuts should be recycled. We have set out our steps for tackling the budget deficit and we have done so in a more transparent way than any previous Government. Some noble Lords have argued that, because we have lifted the skirt a bit, they would now like the skirt to be lifted a lot further. However, they do not give us much credit for the greater transparency we have already introduced. We are on track to have debt falling and a balanced structural current budget by the end of this Parliament. It is only by acting quickly to tackle the deficit and restore confidence in the public finances that we will underpin and achieve economic growth. Action of this kind requires us to take tough decisions. A number of noble Lords have questioned this basic judgment, starting with the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe. I was struck by the intervention from the opposition Benches of the noble Lord, Lord Desai, who did not in any way question the basic Budget judgment and gave a very balanced account. I had a look two or three times at the briefing notes that officials had given me just to check that the noble Lord was sitting on the right Benches, because I thought it was a very balanced account of the judgment that has been taken. And of course there are risks ahead. The basic judgment was questioned by other noble Lords, including the noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe and Lord Rosser. We had one quote from the OECD. The one I have to hand is from its Secretary-General, Angel Gurría, who hailed the Budget as a courageous move by the British Government, and said: "““It provides the necessary degree of fiscal consolidation over the coming years to restore public finances to a sustainable path, while still supporting the recovery””." That is the basic judgment at the heart of the Budget. The recent G20 communiqué stated that those countries with serious fiscal challenges needed to accelerate the pace of consolidation. The noble Lord, Lord McFall of Alcluith, says that it is the UK Government calling for early fiscal consolidation but it is actually the G20 that is calling for countries such as the UK to get on with it. The noble Lord, Lord Davies of Oldham, says that we are not adopting the same policies as certain other countries. Too right. Different countries need to adopt different policies appropriate to their particular circumstances, and our circumstances are regrettably that we inherited from the previous Government the largest budget deficit in Europe except Ireland, and we have to get on and tackle it. The bulk of the deficit reduction will come from lower spending but given the astonishing size of the budget deficit, we have not been able to avoid the need to raise some taxes. My noble friend Lord Higgins asked what increase of revenue there would be in the current and next year. The figures in the Red Book in Table 2.1 on page 40 show that the amounts raised by tax policy decisions in the Budget represent an increase in revenue of £2.8 billion in 2010-11 and £6.25 billion in 2011-12. The choices that we have now made are ones that face up to the challenges ahead and do not simply defer them to future generations. There has been precious little from the opposition Benches in the way of alternative plans and thoughts as to how we are to deal with it. I welcome the contribution from the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, in one respect and that is that he put up a radical alternative vision. It seemed to be founded on the starting premise or assertion that we can continue to push up government borrowing without limit, although even he went on to recognise that certain Governments have got to the limits of what the borrowing capacity of a country can be. There was an interesting contrast between the contributions from the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, and my noble friend Lord Bates. The noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, postulated what might cause a businessman to invest, but I heard from my noble friend Lord Bates pretty much what I had already scribbled down as what I thought businessmen wanted, which is that they will increase their investment when they have confidence that there will be increasing orders from their customers. I believe that their confidence in their customers will be founded on the customers’ view of whether there is a grip on the economy. Businessmen will look at the level of interest rates and they will want to see them kept low. They will want and need to see credit continuing to flow. They will need to see that government expenditure is under control. They will want to see that regulation is being tackled. They will want to see predictable and falling corporate tax rates. They will want to see that employment taxes are being cut from where the previous Government intended to take them. They will want to see that the Government, in cutting back expenditure, are maintaining investment in those areas of economic growth. These are all things which I see in the total Budget package. I agree with my noble friend Lord Bates on them. There was discussion about value added tax and, in that context, whether this a progressive or regressive Budget. We are taking responsibility in this Bill for the financial challenges that we have inherited but in a way that is fair and open. Everyday essentials such as food and children’s clothing will remain zero-rated for VAT throughout the Parliament, protecting those on low and middle incomes. Those most affected by the VAT rise will be those who spend the most. This is clear in both government and independent analysis. If one looks at the impact of expenditure by decile, as is appropriate for a tax on expenditure, one sees that the richest pay the most and the poorest least. These points were questioned by the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, but were knocked admirably on the head by the noble Lord, Lord Desai, who said that it was wrong to suggest that VAT was necessarily a regressive tax. I do not want bore everybody with more quotes from the IFS, but its view is that total expenditure is the more appropriate guide to lifetime living standards, as households smooth their expenditure over their lifetime. Analysis by expenditure rather than income level is therefore a better measure of the impact of the VAT increase and, on this basis, the VAT increase is progressive. Other noble Lords made wider points on whether the Budget is regressive or progressive, including the noble Lords, Lord Lea of Crondall, Lord Rosser, and, again, Lord Myners. They questioned whether policies of the previous Government should be included in the assessment. The IFS accepts that, looking at the Budget as a whole, the changes are progressive. It does not make sense, surely, to ignore the policies of the previous Government which the coalition Government have decided to retain and will legislate to implement.